LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2012 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month as lower forecast broiler production more than offsets a higher pork production forecast. Beef and turkey production forecasts are unchanged.
Broiler production is forecast lower, largely due to slower expected growth in average bird weights in the first part of the year. Pork production is forecast higher as slightly higher carcass weights are expected.
USDA will release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 23 which will provide an indication of producer farrowing intentions into the first part of 2012. For 2011, beef and broiler production forecasts are lowered, but the pork production forecast is raised. Egg production is forecast higher in the last quarter of 2011 and for 2012.
The beef import forecast is raised for 2011 based on higher-than-expected third-quarter data, but is unchanged for 2012. Pork imports are lowered for 2011 and 2012. Beef, pork, and poultry exports are raised for 2011 and pork, broiler, and turkey exports are raised for 2012.
Cattle prices are forecast higher for the remainder of 2011 and through 2012 as demand strength is expected to carry into 2012 in the face of tight cattle supplies. Hog prices are unchanged for 2012. Broiler prices are raised for 2011 and 2012 because of lower production.
Milk production forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are raised slightly, reflecting higher growth in milk per cow and slightly more cows in 2011. Fat basis imports are raised for 2011 and skim-solids basis imports are forecast slightly higher in 2012. Exports are forecast higher for 2011.
For 2011, cheese and whey prices are unchanged, but butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are reduced.
Thus, the Class III price forecast is unchanged but the Class IV price is reduced. Cheese and butter prices for 2012 are lowered from last month but the whey price is raised. The range of the NDM price is narrowed. As a result of the higher whey price, the Class III price is raised, and the lower butter price results in a reduction in the Class IV price forecast. The all milk price forecast is forecast at $20.05 to $20.15 per cwt for 2011, and $18.10 to $18.90 per cwt for 2012.
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December WASDE Report Coverage
See all of the report numbers and analysis from today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.