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WASDE: Competition from South American Soybean Crop

11:14AM Apr 10, 2013

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 125 million bushels. Although soybean export commitments through February exceeded last year’s pace, U.S. exports are expected to decline in the months ahead as increased competition from a record South American soybean crop limits additional U.S. sales during the second half of the marketing year.

Soybean crush is also ahead of last year’s pace, but is projected to slow in the second half of the marketing year on declining soybean meal exports as competition from South America, especially Argentina, increases with the new-crop harvest.

The projected season-average price range for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $13.80 to $14.80 per bushel. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 48.5 to 51.5 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $425 to $445 per short ton, down 10 dollars at the midpoint.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 466.8 million tons, down slightly from last month as reduced soybean and sunflowerseed production is mostly offset by increased rapeseed and cottonseed production. Foreign production, projected at 374.1 million tons, accounts for all of the change. Argentina soybean production is projected at 51.5 million tons, down 1.5 million.

Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects. China rapeseed production is projected at 13.5 million tons, up 0.9 million based on increased area and yield indicated in recently released official government statistics. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Australia and India, reduced sunflowerseed production for Argentina, and increased palm oil production for Malaysia. Cottonseed production is increased for China and reduced for Pakistan and Brazil.



Coverage, Analysis of the April 10 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the WASDE and Crop Production reports.