COARSE GRAINS: The outlook for 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies is virtually unchanged this month with only small changes made to barley and oats imports and exports for 2013/14. Other feed grain balance sheet items are unchanged for both marketing years. Projected corn production for 2014/15 is unchanged at a record 13,935 million bushels. The projected U.S. corn yield remains at 165.3 bushels per acre as a slightly slower-than-normal mid-May planting progress is expected to be offset by very favorable early season crop and weather conditions. U.S. crop conditions in the most recent Crop Progress report are the best in 4 years for the aggregated 18 reported states and better than any time since 2007 for the Corn Belt. The projected range for the 2014/15 season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel and below this month’s lower projected 2013/14 range of $4.45 to $4.65 per bushel. The 2013/14 price range is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint based on prices reported to date and the recent decline in nearby cash and futures prices.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 2.3 million tons higher mostly with larger corn beginning stocks and production. Higher 2013/14 corn production for Brazil and India raise 2014/15 beginning stocks for both countries. Lower 2013/14 corn exports for Argentina also add to 2014/15 beginning stocks. Higher 2013/14 corn imports boost 2014/15 beginning stocks for Colombia, Egypt, and Turkey. Ukraine and China 2014/15 corn beginning stocks are lowered with higher 2013/14 exports for Ukraine and lower 2013/14 imports for China. Despite an increase in 2013/14 South Africa corn production, 2014/15 beginning stocks decline with higher 2013/14 consumption and exports.
Global corn production for 2014/15 is raised 2.0 million tons with increases for Ukraine, the European Union, and Russia. Ukraine and Russia production are raised 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, on higher expected yields as the latest trade data for both countries confirm further expansion in the use of imported hybrid seed corn. European Union production is raised 0.6 million tons with increases for Germany and central Europe reflecting improved early season growing conditions in the region. Serbia corn output is reduced slightly with less expected area.
Global 2014/15 coarse grain trade is mostly unchanged this month except for small increases in corn and barley imports for Turkey. Global corn consumption is raised 1.8 million tons with increased feed use projected for Turkey, the European Union, Ukraine, and Russia. Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 0.9 million tons higher with increases for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, India, and Russia partly offset by reductions for China, Ukraine, and South Africa.