COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher this month mostly with higher expected beginning stocks and production for corn. Corn beginning stocks are raised 150 million bushels reflecting changes to 2010/11 usage projections. Corn production for 2011/12 is projected 270 million bushels higher based on planted and harvested area as reported in the Acreage report. Feed and residual use for 2011/12 is raised 50 million bushels with larger supplies and lower expected prices. Corn use for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels with larger supplies and an improved outlook for ethanol producer margins. Exports are raised 100 million bushels mostly reflecting increased demand from China. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 175 million bushels higher at 870 million. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for corn is projected at a record $5.50 to $6.50 per bushel, down 50 cents on both ends of the range.
Lower production for the other U.S. feed grains for 2011/12 mostly reflect lower estimated area from the Acreage report, which is partly offset by higher forecast yields for barley. Oats yields are lowered. Domestic use is projected lower for sorghum and oats, and sorghum exports are lowered. Projected farm prices are lowered for sorghum, barley, and oats.
Total U.S. corn use for 2010/11 is projected 145 million bushels lower mostly reflecting the larger-than-expected June 1 stocks estimate. Feed and residual use is lowered 150 million bushels. Ethanol use is raised 50 million bushels with larger supplies and improved ethanol producer margins. Partly offsetting is a 20-million-bushel reduction in use for sweeteners reflecting slower demand from Mexico. Corn exports are lowered 25 million bushels based on the slower-than-expected pace of shipments in recent weeks. Imports are raised 5 million bushels with continued strong shipments from Canada. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are raised 150 million bushels to 880 million. The season-average farm price is projected at $5.15 to $5.35 per bushel compared with $5.20 to $5.50 last month.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 10.3 million tons higher mostly on higher corn beginning stocks and production in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks changes are mostly offsetting with corn carryin lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada and barley carryin raised 0.2 million tons and 0.3 million tons, respectively, for Argentina and Australia. Foreign corn production is lowered 0.6 million tons. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons each for Mexico and Russia, and 0.2 million tons for Canada. Ukraine corn production is raised 0.5 million tons and production for Belarus is raised 0.2 million tons. World barley production is raised 1.3 million tons with production raised 1.0 million tons for Russia, 0.8 million tons for Turkey, 0.4 million tons for EU-27, and 0.2 million tons for Argentina. Partly offsetting is a 1.0-million-ton reduction for Ukraine barley. Canada oats production is lowered 0.4 million tons.
Global corn trade for 2011/12 is raised with higher imports for China. China corn imports are raised 1.5 million tons to 2.0 million reflecting the recently announced sale to China and favorable pricing opportunities for U.S. corn into southern China where growing demand is reducing stocks. Corn exports are lowered 0.5 million tons for Canada and 0.2 million tons each for Mexico and Russia, partly offsetting the U.S. increase. Global corn consumption is raised 5.9 million tons with higher expected feeding in China, the United States, and Ukraine, and higher industrial use expected in the United States and Canada. Global corn ending stocks are projected 3.8 million tons higher with the U.S. increase only partly offset by reductions for Canada and Mexico.