U.S. feed grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected higher this month as higher beginning stocks more than offset lower forecast production. Corn production is forecast 64 million bushels lower, with planted and harvested areas lowered 385,000 acres and 452,000 acres, respectively. The national average corn yield forecast is unchanged this month at 148.1 bu./acre.
Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are raised 208 million bushels from the previous projection, based on the Sept. 1 stocks estimate. Corn supplies for 2011/12 are forecast 144 million bushels higher. Total U.S. corn use for 2011/12 is projected 50 million bushels lower, with reduced exports. Higher expected Black Sea production and exports increase competition for U.S. corn. U.S. ending stocks are projected 194 million bushels higher, at 866 million. The season-average farm price is projected 30 cents per bushel lower on both ends of the range, to $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel.
Other 2011/12 feed grain changes this month include a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum exports and a 10-million-bushel increase in feed and residual use. Barley feed and residual use is projected 10 million bushels lower based on June-August disappearance as indicated by the Sept. 1 stocks and updates to June-August trade. For 2010/11, corn feed and residual use is lowered 197 million bushels based on the Sept. 1 stocks estimate and other changes to 2010/11 use and supplies. Sweetener and starch use is lowered 15 million bushels based on reported use for the June-August quarter. Corn imports are lowered 3 million bushels for 2010/11.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 10.4 million tons higher, with more than half of the increase reflecting the 5.3-million-ton increase in U.S. corn beginning stocks. Global corn production is raised 5.4 million tons, with foreign production increases more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Production is raised 4.0 million tons for China to a record 182.0 million tons, supported by 2011 weather data, information from crop tours and early forecasts by officials in China. Ukraine corn production is raised 3.0 million tons as summer precipitation and temperature patterns support a sharp year-to-year increase in yield prospects and early harvest results indicate record yields. Production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Russia, but lowered 0.3 million tons for Serbia.
Estimates of China’s 2009/10 and 2010/11 corn production are raised 6.0 million tons and 4.2 million tons, respectively, in line with data from the China National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Based on analysis of summer weather data from China’s northeast corn growing region during the past decade, NBS provincial yield estimates for 2000 through 2008 and the recently released provincial yield estimates for 2010, NBS yields for 2009 are consistent with the historical relationship between yields and reported summer rainfall and temperatures. Summer weather data and the same statistical relationship support this month’s upward revisions to 2010 production. Increases in China corn feed and residual use for 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2011/12 offset this month’s production increases, leaving China ending stocks nearly unchanged.
Global coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is raised slightly, driven by increased corn imports by South Korea and higher corn exports from Ukraine and Russia. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Ukraine and 0.3 million tons for Russia, with larger crops expected in both countries. These changes more than offset the reduction projected for U.S. shipments. Global corn ending stocks are projected 5.8 million tons higher for 2011/12, mostly reflecting the larger U.S. beginning stocks. Despite the increase, 2011/12 world corn ending stocks would be the smallest since 2006/07.
RICE: U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 186.9 million cwt., down 4.0 million from last month and the smallest crop since 1998/99. The decline is entirely due to a decrease in yield. Average yield is estimated at 7,123 lb./acre, down 150 lb. from last month. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.62 million acres. Long-grain production is forecast at 116.8 million cwt., 2.5 million below last month and the smallest crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is still a record forecast at 70.1 million cwt., down 1.5 million from last month. The import forecast is unchanged at 19.0 million cwt. Domestic and residual use for 2011/12 at 127.0 million cwt. is unchanged from a month ago. Total rice exports are projected at 91.0 million cwt., down 2.0 million from last month. The decrease is entirely in the milled and brown rice category, as the rough rice export forecast is unchanged. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are each lowered 1.0 million cwt. to 60.0 million and 31.0 million, respectively. Total rice ending stocks are projected at 36.4 million cwt., down 1.9 million from last month.
The 2011/12 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt., unchanged from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt., up 50 cents per cwt. on each end of the range from last month. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt., unchanged from a month ago.
Projected global 2011/12 rice supply, consumption, trade and ending stocks are increased from a month ago. World rice production is forecast at a record 461.4 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month due primarily to an increase in India. Thailand’s 2011/12 rice crop is raised 0.5 million in anticipation of a bumper main-season crop in the Northeast and large off-season crop in the North and the Central Plateau that will likely offset the production losses from the recent flooding. India’s 2011/12 rice crop is forecast at a record 100.0 million tons, up 3% from last month and up 5% from the previous year. India benefited from a near-record monsoon in 2011. Partially offsetting the production increases are reductions for Pakistan, the Philippines and the U.S. Global consumption is raised 1.8 million, mostly due to an increase in India. Global exports are raised, with increases for India and Vietnam, partially offset by decreases in the U.S. and Pakistan. Imports are raised for Bangladesh and Nigeria. Global 2011/12 ending stocks are projected at 101.4 million tons, up 2.8 million from last month, 3.6 million above 2010/11 and the largest stocks since 2002/03. Forecast ending stocks are raised for Bangladesh, India and the Philippines, but lowered for Vietnam and the U.S.