COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2014/15 U.S. feed grain supplies are raised this month with higher forecast corn production. Corn production for 2014/15 is forecast 363 million bushels higher at a record 14,395 million bushels. The corn yield forecast is raised 4.3 bushels per acre to a record 171.7 bushels. Corn supplies for 2014/15 are projected at 15,607 million bushels, up 826 million bushels from the previous record in 2013/14.
Total 2014/15 corn usage is projected at 13,605 million bushels, up 170 million from last month. Although a record, usage is expected up just 5 million bushels from 2013/14 as export prospects remain constrained by large foreign carryin stocks. Feed and residual use for 2014/15 is projected 75 million bushels higher this month with the larger crop and lower prices. Projected food, seed, and industrial use is raised 70 million bushels with increases expected for both ethanol and sweeteners. Increases are supported by the reduced corn price outlook and higher production of these corn-based products in recent months. Corn exports are projected 25 million bushels higher with lower prices and reduced competition expected from South America later in the marketing year. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks are raised 194 million bushels to 2,002 million and would be the highest since 2004/05. The projected season-average corn farm price is lowered 40 cents at the midpoint to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel.
Other notable supply and use changes this month include higher projected sorghum exports for both 2013/14 and 2014/15 and an increase in expected barley imports. The 2014/15 season-average farm price for sorghum is projected 35 cents lower at the midpoint to $3.00 to $3.60 per bushel, but the price outlooks for barley and oats are raised reflecting higher-than-expected prices for malting barley and oats reported during the summer months of their June-May marketing year.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 4.0 million tons higher, despite a 7.9-million-ton reduction in foreign coarse grain production. In addition to the higher forecast U.S. corn production, higher foreign beginning stocks also offset the reduction in foreign output. Most of the increase in beginning stocks reflects lower 2013/14 EU corn and barley use and higher corn imports. Adding to available EU grain supplies for 2014/15 is a combined increase of 2.1 million tons in corn and barley output. Brazil corn production is also raised 1.0 million tons for 2014/15 with a month-to-month increase in expected area reflecting the higher area and production reported for 2013/14. Serbia corn production is raised 0.3 million tons for 2014/15.
Corn production for 2014/15 is reduced elsewhere with the largest reduction for China where output is expected down 5 million tons based on persistent summer dryness in key growing areas of the North China Plain and Northeast. Argentina corn production is lowered 3.0 million tons for 2014/15 with lower expected plantings, but higher reported yields boost 2013/14 production 1.0 million tons. Hot, dry conditions in Ukraine and Russia reduce 2014/15 corn production prospects by 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively. Other coarse grain production changes for 2014/15 include a 0.6-million-ton reduction in Argentina sorghum and a 0.5-million-ton reduction in Argentina barley. Barley production is also reduced for Algeria, Australia, and Azerbaijan. A 0.8-million-ton increase in Ukraine barley and a 0.2-million-ton increase in Canada barley, combined with the higher EU output, boost global barley production 0.5 million tons.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised 2.3 million tons as higher U.S. consumption is partly offset by a reduction in foreign corn use. Higher expected corn exports for the United States, EU, and Serbia mostly offset an expected reduction for Argentina. Higher 2013/14 Argentina and Brazil local marketing-year (March 2014-February 2015) exports are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. exports during the early months of the 2014/15 U.S. marketing year (September-August); however, lower year-to-year 2014/15 production and exports for Argentina and Brazil are expected to reduce competition for U.S. shipments during the second half of the 2014/15 September-August marketing year. Global corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected 2.1 million tons higher with reductions for China, Argentina, and Russia more than offset by the larger stocks for the United States and Brazil.
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