COTTON: The 2010/11 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last
month. The forecast for the average price received by producers of 79 to 84 cents per pound
is raised 1 cent on the lower end and lowered 2 cents on the upper end of the range.
The 2010/11 world cotton supply and demand estimates show marginal revisions from last
month. Production is reduced for Uzbekistan, while consumption is lowered for Bangladesh
and Taiwan but raised for Uzbekistan. The world ending stocks forecast is unchanged at 42.8
RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2010/11 rice supply and use balance sheet. On the use side, the export forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt from a month ago to 116.0 million. The long-grain rice export projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 78.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain export forecast is unchanged at a record 38.0 million. Rough rice exports and combined milled- and brown-rice exports are each lowered 0.5 million cwt from last month to 43.0 million and 73.0 million, respectively. The reduction in the export projection is due primarily to the slower-than-expected pace of sales and shipments to date to Central America, Venezuela, and Sub-Saharan Africa. The decrease in the export forecast resulted in an increase in ending stocks of 1.0 million to 52.8 million, the largest stocks since 1985/86.
The 2010/11 long-grain, season-average price is projected at $10.75 to $11.25 per cwt as the range is narrowed 25 cents per cwt on each end with the midpoint unchanged at $11.00 per cwt. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $16.75 to $17.25 per cwt, down 25 cents per cwt on the low end of the range and a decrease of 75 cents per cwt on the high end with the midpoint lowered 50 cents per cwt to $17.00 per cwt. The all rice seasonaverage price is forecast at $12.15 to $12.65 per cwt, up 15 cents per cwt on the low end of the range, but down 35 cents per cwt on the high end with the midpoint lowered 10 cents per cwt to $12.40 per cwt. The price projections are based on National Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through mid-January and expected prices the remainder of the marketing year.
Global 2010/11 projections of rice production, consumption, and ending stocks are lowered from a month ago, and trade is increased. The decrease in the global production forecast is due mostly to reductions in Indonesia, the Philippines, Japan, and Sri Lanka partially offset by increases for Cambodia and Uruguay. Indonesia’s rice crop is forecast at 37.5 million tons, down 500,000 tons from last month due to an expected decrease in average field and milling yields. According to the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Jakarta, the lower field and milling yields were caused by excessive rains during the growing season. Severe flooding in Sri Lanka has damaged the 2010/11 rice crop. The reduction in the Philippine and Japanese rice crops are due to a decrease in average field yields based on official government estimates.
Global consumption is lowered primarily due to reductions for Cambodia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka. World exports are raised by 0.5 million tons primarily due to increases for Australia, Brazil, Cambodia, and Uruguay, partially offset by a reduction for the United States. Higher import forecasts for Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam are partially offset by a reduction for the Philippines. Global ending stocks are lowered by 0.5 million tons to 93.9 million based primarily on reductions for Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Thailand.