This month’s U.S. 2011/12 cotton estimates reflect lower supplies and offtake, resulting in ending stocks marginally above last month. Beginning stocks are lowered 250,000 bales while production is unchanged, based on a combination of higher area and lower yields. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 300,000 bales to 12.0 million, due mainly to lower U.S. supplies and lower imports by China. Ending stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 3.4 million bales. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected to range from 85 to 105 cents per pound, unchanged from last month.
The world 2011/12 estimates show small revisions from last month. Production is raised marginally, as an increase for China more than offsets reductions for Pakistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. World consumption is virtually unchanged and world trade is reduced slightly. Global ending stocks are now estimated at 51.9 million bales, 18 percent above the beginning level and slightly below last month.
The U.S. 2010/11 balance sheet is revised to reflect higher mill use and lower ending stocks relative to last month. The August 25th U.S. Census Bureau report “Consumption on the Cotton System and Stocks” included preliminary end-of-season stocks data; however, this data will not be revised by Census in September due to the elimination of the Current Industrial Reports series. USDA’s Farm Services Agency (FSA) collects data on both cotton domestic mill use and stocks in public warehouses as part of its ongoing program responsibilities. The August Census report and the FSA data were considered in making changes for 2010/11.
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