COTTON: The 2011/12 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates include revisions to domestic mill use and ending stocks. Estimated mill use is reduced 100,000 bales from last month, reflecting activity to date. With beginning stocks, production, and exports unchanged, ending stocks are raised to 3.9 million bales. The forecast range for the average price received by producers of 88 to 93 cents per pound is raised one cent on the lower end.
The 2011/12 world cotton supply and demand estimates reflect higher supplies and lower consumption, resulting in an increase of nearly 1.6 million bales in forecast global ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised mainly in Brazil and Egypt, while production is raised in Brazil and Pakistan, but lowered in Australia. Forecast consumption is reduced for China, Brazil, Egypt, and others, but is raised for South Korea. World trade is estimated nearly 4 percent above last month, as India government sources have reported sharply higher exports to date this season than were estimated previously. The revised India export forecast of 7.75 million bales assumes that the ban on further exports announced March 5, 2012, remains in place. Forecast world imports are raised 1.35 million bales, due mainly to a 1.5-million-bale increase in imports by China, where nearly 40 percent of domestic production has been placed in the government reserve. Based on these revisions, China’s ending stocks are now projected at just over 20.0 million bales.
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