The 2011/12 U.S. cotton forecasts feature lower exports and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Production is raised 52,000 bales, as increases for several States, especially Georgia, more than offset a decrease in estimated production for Texas. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are reduced due to lower foreign import demand. Ending stocks are now forecast at 3.9 million bales. The stocks-to-use ratio of 25.5 percent is higher than the previous two seasons but well below the 5-year average. The forecast for the average price received by producers of 87.5 to 102.5 cents per pound is narrowed 2.5 cents on each end of the range.
The 2010/11 world cotton forecasts include larger supplies, lower consumption, and higher ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised about 900,000 bales, due mostly to prior year revisions for Brazil and Bangladesh. World production is raised 1.2 million bales, as increases for Australia, India, Brazil, Pakistan, and Mali more than offset a reduction for China. World consumption is reduced nearly 850,000 bales, reflecting current sluggish demand and weaker forecasts for world economic growth. With larger production and lower consumption, world trade is reduced 2 percent from last month, including a 500,000-bale decrease in China’s imports. Forecast world ending stocks are raised nearly 3 million bales to 54.8 million. The world stocks-to-use ratio of 48 percent is marginally above the preceding 5-year average.