COTTON: This month’s 2011/12 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly lower production and lower exports, resulting in a net increase in ending stocks. Production is lowered 153,000 bales, as a reduction for upland cotton in Texas is partially offset by higher estimated extra long staple (ELS) cotton production. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are reduced 300,000 bales to 11.0 million due to lower U.S. supplies and strong competition from foreign exports. Ending stocks are raised to 3.7 million bales, equivalent to 25 percent of total use. The forecast marketing-year average price received by producers of 86 to 94 cents per pound is narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range.
The world 2011/12 cotton estimates show slightly lower production compared with last month, with consumption reduced about 1 percent. Production is reduced mainly in India and the United States. Consumption is estimated 1.0 million bales lower for China, as the substantial accumulation of cotton in the national reserve is expected to support prices and constrain mill use. Consumption also is reduced for Thailand. World ending stocks are raised 700,000 bales to 58.4 million. The forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 53 percent is above both the 5- and 10-year averages.
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