WASDE: Ending Stocks of Cotton Now Forecast at 5.6 Million Bales

11:05AM Aug 12, 2014
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COTTON: The U.S. 2014/15 cotton forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks compared with last month. Beginning stocks are reduced 100,000 bales due to preliminary stocks indications for July 31, 2014. Production is raised 6 percent to 17.5 million bales in the first survey-based estimate of U.S. crop production, mainly on lower expected abandonment. Domestic mill use is unchanged, but exports are raised 500,000 bales to 10.7 million on stronger foreign import demand and the larger available supply. Ending stocks are now forecast at 5.6 million bales, 39 percent of total use, the largest stocks-to-use ratio since 2007/08. The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers of 58-72 cents per pound is lowered on both ends, with the midpoint now forecast at 65 cents.

Revisions to the 2014/15 world cotton supply and demand balance sheet result in marginally lower global ending stocks compared with last month’s forecast. Beginning stocks are reduced 600,000 bales due to adjustments in 2013/14 for several countries. For 2014/15, production is raised for the United States, India, and Mexico, but lowered for Brazil and Australia. World consumption is raised about 1 percent from last month to 112.6 million bales, the highest level since 2010/11, as falling prices are anticipated to boost cotton’s share of textile fiber use. Ending stocks are now projected at 105.1 million bales, with stocks outside of China expected to grow by about 4 million bales from 2013/14.



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