WASDE: Forecasts for Total Meat Production Reduced

September 11, 2014 06:10 AM
 
WASDE: Forecasts for Total Meat Production Reduced

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY:  The forecasts for total meat production in 2014 and 2015 are reduced from last month.  For 2014, beef production is down as supplies of cattle coming out of feedlots have been below expectations.  However, this is partly offset by higher expected dressed weights as lower feed costs and reduced heifer and cow slaughter boost weights.  Pork production is marginally lower as higher dressed weights are more than offset by a reduction in slaughter.  USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 26, providing an estimate of farrowing intentions into early 2015.  Broiler production is increased as hatchery data shows stronger increases in the number of eggs set and chicks placed.  Turkey production is slightly higher based on production data to date.  Egg production reflects actual data for the second quarter, but no changes are made to the forecasts.  For 2015, beef production is cut as lower placements of cattle in the second half of 2014 are expected to reduce supplies of fed cattle in 2015 despite heavier carcass weights.  Pork production is higher on heavier dressed weights.  Broiler production is raised as expected favorable returns support further expansion by producers.  The egg production forecast is increased.

Forecasts for 2014 and 2015 beef imports are higher due to tight cull cow supplies and strong consumer demand for processing grade beef.  Beef exports for 2014 and 2015 are unchanged.  Pork trade is unchanged for 2014 and 2015.  Broiler exports are unchanged for 2014, but the 2015 forecast is raised as greater supplies and lower prices boost exports.  Turkey export forecasts are raised for 2014 and 2015.   

The cattle price forecast for 2014 is raised from last month on tightness in supplies of fed cattle.  The price forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Hog price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered from last month as recent lower price levels are expected to carry into next year.  Broiler price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered as supplies increase.  The turkey price forecast for 2014 is raised based on recent price data, with the forecast for 2015 unchanged.  Egg price forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are virtually unchanged.  

The milk production forecast for 2014 is raised on growth in output per cow, but the forecast for 2015 is unchanged.  Export forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are lowered as higher forecast U.S. prices for butter and cheese make those products less competitive in world markets and sales of a number of other dairy products are limited as well.  Skim-solids and fat-basis imports are raised for both 2014 and 2015 as supplies in competing exporters are expected to be large while U.S. prices remain relatively high.  

Butter and cheese price forecasts are raised for 2014 with strength in both expected to continue into the first part of 2015.  Nonfat dry milk prices are forecast lower in 2014 and 2015.  The forecast whey price is unchanged for 2014 but is lowered fractionally for 2015.  Class III prices for 2014 and 2015 are raised.  The Class IV price is higher in 2014 but reduced in 2015.  The all milk price is raised to $23.80 to $24.00 per cwt for 2014, and is lowered for 2015 to $19.40 to $20.40 per cwt. 

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