OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2011/12 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 275 million bushels. Soybean exports are projected at 1.275 billion bushels, down 226 million from last year.
Although soybean export commitments through January trail last year’s pace by more than 226 million bushels, lower soybean crop forecasts and reduced export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay are expected to be offset by additional U.S. sales and exports during the second half of the marketing year.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2011/12 is narrowed to $11.10 to $12.30 per bushel compared with $10.95 to $12.45 last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, and soybean meal prices are projected at $290 to $320 per short ton, both unchanged from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 452.5 million tons, down 4.9 million tons from last month. Brazil soybean production is forecast at 72 million tons, down 2 million due to lower projected yields. The reduction reflects hot, dry conditions in southern Brazil in December and January. Argentina soybean production is projected at 48 million tons, down 2.5 million.
Despite widespread rains in recent weeks, the extended hot, dry period during planting and early crop development limited plantings and reduced yield prospects. Paraguay and Uruguay soybean production estimates are also reduced this month. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for China and Russia, lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed production for Kazakhstan, and higher cottonseed production for Pakistan.
Global oilseed trade for 2011/12 is projected at 110.5 million tons, down 2.6 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean export projections for Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay. Soybean imports are reduced for China, EU-27, South Korea, Russia, and several Middle East countries. China soybean imports are reduced 1 million tons to 55.5 million reflecting lower-than-expected October-December imports. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 71.2 million tons, down 3.6 million from last month. Reduced soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina account for most of the change.
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