WASDE: Higher Rice Yields Increase Production Forecast

07:42AM Oct 11, 2012
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RICE: U.S. rice production in 2012/13 is forecast at 198.9 million cwt, up 2.5 million from last month with the increase entirely due to higher yield. The average all rice yield is a record at 7,428 pounds per acre, up 94 pounds from last month. Yields are raised in all States but Missouri where the yield is unchanged from a month ago. Record yields are forecast for Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.68 million acres. Both
long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice production are raised from last month, with long-grain production projected at 140.1 million cwt and combined medium-and short-grain production at 58.8 million. The all rice import forecast is unchanged at 19.5 million cwt.

Domestic and residual use for 2012/13 at 127.0 million cwt is up 1.0 million from a month ago. Total rice exports are projected at 100.0 million cwt, unchanged from last month. All rice ending stocks are projected at 32.4 million cwt, up 1.5 million from last month. The 2012/13 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.20 to $14.20 per cwt, up 70 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and shortgrain farm price range is projected at $16.50 to $17.50 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.20 to $15.20 per cwt, up 50 cents on each end of the range. Long-grain rice prices will be supported in part by expected stronger prices among South American competitors including Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. Competition in the medium-grain market is expected to be stronger as the U.S. will face competition from both Egypt and Australia for limited international markets. Egypt lifted the rice export ban as of October 1, 2012. Australia’s 2012/13 rice area is expected to expand by 11 percent from the previous year as irrigation supplies are plentiful.

Global total use of rice for 2012/13 is raised more than the increase in total supplies resulting in a slight decline in world ending stocks. World rice production is raised 0.9 million tons to a record 465.1 million, up slightly from the previous year. The boost in production is due mostly to a 1.0-million-ton increase in India’s crop to 99.0 million tons. Favorable late-season monsoon rains in India’s eastern and northeastern rice areas benefitted kharif rice. Additionally, the late season rains should also benefit India’s rabi rice crop. Rice crops are also increased in Australia, Egypt, Japan, and the United States, and dropped in Uruguay and several SubSaharan African countries. Global consumption is raised 0.9 million tons to a record 468.6 million, with most of the increase in China, India, and Nigeria, partially offset by decreases for Bangladesh, Egypt, and Tanzania. Global exports are raised 0.4 million tons, with increases for Egypt and India, partially offset by reductions for China and Uruguay. Imports are raised for Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. Global 2012/13 ending stocks are projected at 102.0
million tons, down 0.3 million from last month, and 3.5 million below 2011/12. Forecast ending stocks are lowered for Bangladesh and India, but increased for Nigeria.

Coverage, Analysis of the Oct. 11 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.