WASDE: Higher Soybean Ending Stocks

May 11, 2011 02:43 AM
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 99.0 million tons, down 1 percent from 2010/11. Reduced soybean production accounts for most of the decline, but sunflowerseed, canola, and peanut production are all projected below last year’s crops. Soybean production is projected at 3.285 billion bushels, down 44 million from the 2010 crop mostly due to lower harvested area. Soybean yields are projected at a trend level of 43.4 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushels from 2010. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.47 billion bushels, down less than 1 percent from 2010/11 as larger beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 170 million bushels, up 30 million from last month due to reduced exports.
Soybean crush for 2011/12 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, up fractionally from 2010/11 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean meal demand. Lower soybean meal export demand projected for 2011/12 is only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use, leaving total soybean meal use down 1 percent from 2010/11. Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 7 percent mostly due to biodiesel production gains. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 3.5 billion pounds, up 1 billion from 2010/11 reflecting a higher biodiesel use mandate.
With lower 2011/12 U.S. soybean supplies and higher South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly below the 2010/11 level despite a projected increase in global import demand led by China. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 160 million bushels, down 10 million from 2010/11, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at 4.8 percent.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2011/12 is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel compared with $11.40 per bushel in 2010/11. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $350 to $380 per short ton, compared with $350 per ton for 2010/11. Soybean oil prices are projected at 56 to 60 cents per pound compared with 53.5 cents for 2010/11.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at a record 459.2 million tons, up 2.2 percent from 2010/11. Global soybean production is projected to increase less than 1 percent to 263.3 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 53 million tons, up 3.5 million from 2010/11 crop based on a higher harvested area and yields. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 72.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from the projected record 2010/11 crop. A 3 percent increase in harvested area is more than offset by a return to trend yields. China soybean production is projected at 14.8 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2010/11 due to lower area and yields. Higher rapeseed production for Canada, Australia, China, and Ukraine more than offsets lower production for EU-27. For sunflowerseed, production gains for Russia, Ukraine, and EU-27 more than offset reduced production in Argentina. Led by gains in global oilseed production, 2011/12 oilseed supplies are up 2.4 percent from 2010/11. With global crush projected to increase 3.5 percent, global oilseed stocks are projected to decline 1.5 million tons to 72.2 million.

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