WASDE: Little Change in Corn Stocks

December 10, 2010 01:52 AM

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2010/11 are virtually unchanged as a small increase in corn imports is offset by a reduction in barley imports both reflecting feed grain production changes for Canada this month. U.S. corn imports are raised 5 million bushels with record production reported for Canada. U.S. corn ending stocks are raised accordingly.

Barley imports are lowered 5 million bushels with lower production in Canada and the slow pace of imports to date. U.S. barley food, seed, and industrial use is lowered the same amount as domestic beer consumption remains weak slowing demand for malting barley. The projected marketing-year average price received by U.S. corn producers is unchanged this month at $4.80 to $5.60 per bushel. Farm prices for barley and oats are both projected slightly lower based on prices received by producers to date.

Global coarse grain production for 2010/11 is increased 3.4 million tons with corn production up 2.2 million tons, barley production up 0.6 million tons, and oats production up 0.4 million tons. India corn production is raised 1.0 million tons as the extended monsoon increased lateseason soil moisture for the summer corn crop. The same conditions boosted harvested area for millet, adding 0.3 million tons to India production. Australia barley and oats production are raised 1.9 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, both on higher reported yields.

The latest official statistics from Canada indicated mostly offsetting production changes for coarse grains. Canada corn production is raised 0.7 million tons as favorable weather boosted corn yields in Ontario and Quebec. Canada barley production is lowered 0.6 million tons with lower area and yields in the western prairies. Corn production is raised 0.5 million tons for Ukraine and 0.4 million tons for EU-27. Small offsetting reductions are made this month for Paraguay  corn, Ukraine barley and oats, and Russia barley and rye.

Global 2010/11 coarse grain trade is lowered slightly mostly reflecting reduced corn imports by  Mexico as feeding there is projected lower. Corn exports are lowered 0.8 million tons for Serbia, but raised 0.5 million tons and 0.2 million tons, respectively, for India and Canada.

Barley exports are lowered 0.4 million tons for Canada, but raised 0.3 million tons for Australia. Reduced corn feeding for Mexico and Serbia is mostly offset by increases for India, South Africa, and Canada. Global corn ending stocks are projected 0.8 million tons higher with larger stocks in EU-27 and Serbia partly offset by smaller stocks in South Africa and Mexico.  

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