WASDE: Livestock and Dairy

October 8, 2010 02:51 AM

 LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast of total U.S. meat production is raised for 2010 but lowered for 2011. Beef and broiler production forecasts for 2010 are raised as second half production is higher than previously expected, but the pork production forecast is reduced due to lower slaughter and slower growth in slaughter weights. The 2011 beef production forecast is raised primarily in the first quarter as larger-than-expected third quarter 2010 placements are marketed. Pork production for 2011 is lowered from last month as relatively high feed prices are expected to keep the growth in sows farrowing modest and dampen hog weights. Broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2011 are lowered from last month as higher feed prices slow growth. Likewise, egg production for 2011 is forecast lower.

Beef import forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011 as supplies in Oceania are expected to be relatively tight while foreign demand strengthens. Export forecasts for beef are raised on continuing strong sales to a number of markets. Pork and poultry trade forecasts are unchanged from last month.
The cattle price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are virtually unchanged. Hog prices are forecast higher on tighter supplies for both 2010 and 2011. The broiler price for 2010 is forecast lower on increased production, but the price forecast is raised slightly for 2011 on reduced output. Egg prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast lower.
Forecast milk production for 2010 is raised slightly from last month as higher milk per cow more than offsets lower cow numbers. The forecast for 2011 is reduced as higher feed prices are expected to slow the rate of growth in cow numbers and milk per cow compared with last month. Import and export forecasts are unchanged. Fat basis stocks are reduced for 2010 as stocks of butter are forecast to be tight. Skim solids stocks are unchanged.
Continued strength in demand for cheese and relatively tight supplies of butter support higher forecast prices for 2010 and 2011. Price forecasts for nonfat dry milk (NDM) are raised for 2010 and 2011 as supplies are tighter. The 2010 whey price forecast is increased slightly but is unchanged for 2011. Both Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised due to the higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.45 to $16.55 per cwt for 2010 and $16.00 to $16.90 per cwt for 2011.

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