WASDE: February Livestock, Poultry and Dairy

February 9, 2011 02:30 AM
 

USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Livestock, Poultry and Dairy:

The estimates of 2010 red meat and poultry production are adjusted from last month to reflect December production estimates. The production forecasts for 2011 are raised for beef, broilers, and turkey, but lowered for pork.
 
Cattle placements during December were large and will result in higher-than-previously forecast slaughter in mid-2011. In addition, cow slaughter in the first half is expected to reflect currently high cull-cow prices. Cattle weights are also forecast slightly higher in the first half. Broiler production forecasts are raised for the first quarter to reflect relatively heavy broiler weights. 
 
The turkey production forecast is raised as hatchery data points to a slower pace of contraction.
 
Pork production is reduced slightly for the first quarter of 2011 as lower hog slaughter more than offsets continued high carcass weights. The forecast of egg production is raised from last month as demand for eggs remains firm.
 
The forecast for beef exports for 2011 is raised from last month primarily on larger expected exports to Asia. The forecast of beef imports is reduced as tight supplies in several exporting countries and a relatively weak U.S. dollar limit shipments.
 
The pork export forecast for 2011 is raised largely due to expected increased sales of pork to Korea as herds have been culled due to foot-and-mouth disease. The broiler export forecast is raised for 2010 but the 2011 forecast is unchanged from last month.  
 
The cattle price forecast for 2011 is raised to reflect continued strong demand for relatively tight supplies of cattle. 
 
Hog prices for 2011 are forecast higher on stronger demand. The broiler price forecast is lowered on larger supplies of broilers and competing meats.  
 
The milk production estimate for 2010 and forecast for 2011 are raised from last month. Supply and use estimates for 2010 are adjusted to reflect production and stock estimates for December. 
 
Milk production is forecast higher for 2011 based on higher-than-expected January 1 dairy cow and dairy replacement heifer estimates. Import and export forecasts are unchanged from last month. 
 
Product prices are forecast higher this month. Strong international demand, coupled with improving domestic demand is expected to help support prices. Butter prices are also benefitting from tight beginning stocks. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised to reflect higher product prices. The all-milk price is forecast to average $17.70 to $18.40 per cwt. for 2011.

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