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WASDE: Lower Rice Stocks

07:33AM May 11, 2011

RICE: Projected smaller U.S. 2011/12 total rice supplies, combined with a modest decline in total use, results in lower projected ending stocks. U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is projected at 211.0 million cwt, 13 percent below 2010/11. Planted area in 2011, based on the NASS Prospective Plantings report, is estimated at 3.02 million acres, down 17 percent from 2010 and the smallest area since 2008. Harvested area is estimated at 3.0 million acres. Average rice yield is projected at 7,033 pounds per acre, up 5 percent from the previous year’s crop, which was damaged by excessive summer heat. The projected yield is calculated from the 5-year Olympic average (2006/07-2010/11) by rice class. Imports for 2011/12 are projected at 18.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from the previous year, but below the 2007/08 record.

U.S. 2011/12 total rice use is projected at a 236.0 million cwt, 2 percent below the previous year’s record level. U.S. domestic and residual use is projected at a near-record 127.0 million, unchanged from 2010/11 as per capita use of rice has shown virtually no growth in recent years. Exports are projected at 109.0 million cwt, 5 percent below revised 2010/11 exports. Despite an expected increase in global trade, competition for key markets will be keen as U.S. and competitor supplies are expected to be large. U.S. ending stocks in 2011/12 are projected at 48.6 million cwt, 13 percent below the previous year. Ending stocks of long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice are 32.8 and 14.4 million cwt, respectively (unclassified broken rice totals 1.4 million cwt).
The average milling yield used for 2011/12 is 70.75 percent. It is based on the 2007/08-2009/10 average milling rate calculated from data supplied by the USA Rice Federation in its monthly rice stocks reports. The 2010/11 market year is excluded from the calculation because milling yields are well below average, largely the result of unfavorable weather.
The U.S. 2011/12 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $11.00 to $12.00 per cwt compared to a revised $11.00 to $11.30 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, compared to a revised $16.85 to $17.15 for the year earlier. The 2011/12 all rice price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, compared to a revised $12.35 to $12.65 per cwt for 2010/11. Large domestic and global supplies and expected lower Asian prices will pressure U.S. prices in 2011/12.
Global 2011/12 total supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at 554.9 and 458.7 million tons, respectively, resulting in a modest decline in world ending stocks. Global 2011/12 rice production is projected at a record 457.9 million tons, up 6.6 million or 1.5 percent from 2010/11. Large crops are projected for most of Asia including record or near-record crops in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. In contrast, rice crops in many Western Hemisphere nations including Argentina, Brazil, Peru, the United States, and Uruguay are forecast lower than the previous year. Global 2011/12 consumption (which includes residual) is projected at a record, led by increases for Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Laos, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Global exports in 2011/12 are projected at a marketing-year record 32.2 million tons, up 0.8 million from 2010/11 with increases expected for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam, while exports from the U.S., Cambodia, and Brazil are expected to decline. Larger imports are projected for Middle Eastern, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Western Hemisphere markets, although the expected increases are slight. Global ending stocks are expected to decline 0.9 million tons from 2010/11 to 96.2 million. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2011/12 is calculated at 21.0 percent, down from last year's 21.6 percent.