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WASDE: Lower World Cotton Production

07:47AM Jul 11, 2012

COTTON: This month’s 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates show slight revisions in supply and offtake, resulting in marginally lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 100,000 bales to 3.3 million, reflecting a decrease for domestic mill use in 2011/12. Production for 2012/13 is unchanged at 17.0 million bales, despite a 4-percent reduction in planted area in the June Acreage report, as abandonment and yield have been adjusted based on current conditions.

Forecast domestic mill use is reduced 100,000 bales based on recent activity levels. Exports are raised due to higher projected global imports and slightly reduced foreign competition. Ending stocks are now projected at 4.8 million bales. The projected range for the season average farm price is unchanged at 60 to 80 cents per pound.

Lower beginning stocks and production trim this month’s 2012/13 world stocks projection by 3 percent. World production is reduced 1.5 million bales due to decreases for India, Pakistan, and others. A reduction in India’s crop of 1.0 million bales reflects lower-than-expected planted area and slightly lower yield prospects due to the monsoon delay. Total world consumption is virtually unchanged as reductions for China and the United States are offset by increases for India, Pakistan, and Vietnam.

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