WASDE: Lower Yields Reduce Soybean Supply Estimates

September 12, 2012 02:42 AM
WASDE: Lower Yields Reduce Soybean Supply Estimates

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 82 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month. Lower soybean and cottonseed production is only partly offset by an increase for peanuts. Soybean supplies for 2012/13 are reduced due to lower forecast production and beginning stocks. Soybean production is projected at 2.634 billion bushels, down 58 million due to lower yields in the Midwest. Soybean exports are reduced 55 million bushels to 1.055 billion mainly due to reduced supplies. Soybean crush is reduced 15 million bushels to 1.5 billion, the lowest since 1996/97. The reduction reflects lower projected soybean meal exports and domestic soybean meal consumption. Although soybean ending stocks are projected unchanged at 115 million bushels, they would fall to a 9-year low. Other changes for 2012/13 include reduced soybean oil production and ending stocks.

Soybean crush for 2011/12 is increased 15 million bushels to 1.705 billion reflecting higher-thanexpected crush reported for July. Soybean exports are increased 10 million to 1.36 billion. Residual use is lowered 10 million bushels reflecting the impact of early harvest of the 2012/13 crop in the South. Ending stocks are projected at 130 million bushels, down 15 million from last month. Other changes for 2011/12 include increased soybean oil production, exports, and ending stocks and increased domestic disappearance of soybean meal.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012/13 is projected unchanged at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are projected at $485 to $515 per short ton, up $25.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54 to 58 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 453.1 million tons, down 4.2 million from last month. Reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed are only partly offset by increased peanut and cottonseed production. In addition to the United States, projected soybean production is reduced for Ukraine and Canada. Early harvest results for Ukraine indicate a lower yield in part reflecting unusually hot temperatures during the growing season. Lower soybean production for Canada is based on the most recent crop survey results reported by Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production for Canada is reduced 0.9 million tons to 15.4 million based on lower yields and harvested area reported by Statistics Canada. At this level the crop is record large. Rapeseed production is also raised for the 2011 crop based on the latest Statistics Canada estimates. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for EU-27, lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, Ukraine, and EU-27, and lower cottonseed production for Brazil.


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