WASDE: March Livestock, Poultry and Dairy

March 10, 2011 01:30 AM


The forecast for 2011 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, reflecting increased production of beef, pork, broilers, and turkeys. Fed cattle slaughter will reflect expected strength in feedlot placements during early 2011 and relatively large dairy cow slaughter in the first part of 2011 will also contribute to higher beef production. However, the effects of increased cattle slaughter will be partly mitigated by lower expected carcass weights. Pork production is increased from last month as carcass weights thus far in the first quarter are well above last year. Broiler and turkey production is forecast higher in the first half of 2011. The broiler production increase largely reflects relatively heavy bird weights but the increase in turkey production forecast reflects higher increases in poult placements as well as increased bird weights. The egg production forecast is raised as the table egg type laying flock has been increasing. Estimates of 2010 poultry and egg production are adjusted to reflect data revisions.
The forecast for beef exports for 2011 is raised from last month on strength in exports to Asia. The beef import forecast is reduced as supplies in several exporting countries are expected to remain tight and a relatively weak U.S. dollar is expected to constrain shipments. The pork and poultry export forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month. Trade estimates for 2010 reflect import and export data for December.
Despite the higher production forecasts, prices for livestock and poultry are raised from last month. Robust exports and improving domestic demand in the face of relatively tight meat supplies are expected to support higher price forecasts for cattle, hogs, broilers, and turkeys. Egg prices in the first quarter are forecast lower due to recent price declines.
The milk production forecast for 2011 is reduced from last month. Relatively high milk prices and increased supplies of replacement heifers are expected to encourage further increases in the cow herd through much of the year, but the rate of increase in milk per cow is forecast slower than last month. Exports are forecast higher as global nonfat dry milk and cheese demand remains strong with tight supplies in competitor markets expected through the first half of 2011. Estimates of 2010 milk production are adjusted to reflect data revisions.
Dairy product prices are forecast higher this month on strong early year prices. Strong international demand and improving domestic demand will support prices for most products. Currently tight butter stocks are also helping support butter prices. Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised to reflect higher product prices. The all milk price is forecast to average $18.10 to $18.70 per cwt for 2011.


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