No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2010/11 rice supply and use balance sheet. On the use side, domestic and residual use and total exports are unchanged from a month ago; however, the rough rice export forecast is lowered 1.0 million cwt, which is offset by an increase in the combined milled and brown export forecast (rough-equivalent basis). Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are forecast at 78.0 million cwt and 38.0 million, respectively, unchanged from the previous month. All rice ending stocks are projected at 52.8 million cwt, unchanged from last month, and the largest stocks since 1985/86. Long-grain rice stocks are projected at 42.9 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 8.4 million, both unchanged from a month ago. The 2010/11 average milling rate is revised to 67.75 percent, up 0.25 points from last month. The average milling rate is determined from updated Farm Service Agency warehouse stored loan data for long-, medium-, and short-grain rice.
The 2010/11 long-grain season-average price is projected at $11.05 to $11.55 per cwt, up 30 cents on each end of the range from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $16.25 to $16.75 per cwt, down 50 cents on each end of the range. The all rice season-average price is forecast at $12.25 to $12.75 per cwt, up 10 cents on both ends of the range. The price projections are based on the National Agricultural Statistics Service reported prices through mid-February and expected prices the remainder of the marketing year.
Global 2010/11 projections of rice production, consumption, and exports are lowered from a month ago, and ending stocks are raised. The decrease in the global production forecast, still a record at 451.5 million tons, is due entirely to a decrease in the rice crop in India, which is partially offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil. India’s rice crop is forecast at 94.5 million tons, down 500,000 tons from last month due to an expected decrease in average yield. Drier than normal weather in the eastern and northern rice growing regions is expected to lower Rabi yields. The increases in Argentina and Brazil are due to an expected increase in harvested area.
Global consumption is lowered 5.3 million tons to 447.0 million, still a record, primarily due to reductions in India (-4.0 million) and China (-0.5 million). Conversely, global ending stocks are raised 4.9 million tons to 98.8 million attributed mostly to increases for India, China, Bangladesh, and Burma. India’s 2010/11 ending stocks are raised 3.6 million tons to 21.6 million based on recently received information on government-held stocks. China’s 2010/11 ending stocks are raised nearly 1.0 million tons based on information from the Agricultural Counselor in Beijing. Global 2010/11 exports are lowered nearly 0.5 million tons, due mostly to reductions in Burma, China, and India.