WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 49 million bushels lower this month with lower estimated production and higher expected feed and residual use. Production is lowered 41 million bushels based on the Small Grains 2010 Summary report. Feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels on higher-than-expected disappearance during the June-August quarter as indicated by the September 1 stocks. Higher carryin with small upward revisions to estimated 2009/10 production and ending stocks are partly offsetting. The 2010/11 season-average farm price is projected at $5.20 to $5.80 per bushel compared with $4.95 to $5.65 per bushel last month.
Global wheat supplies for 2010/11 are projected 1.0 million tons lower mostly reflecting lower production in the United States. World production for 2010/11 is projected at 641.4 million tons, down 1.6 million tons from last month; however, beginning stocks are raised 0.6 million tons with upwardly revised 2009/10 production estimates for South America and Canada. For 2010/11, production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Mexico and 0.3 million tons each for Algeria and Canada. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Europe and 0.3 million tons for Ethiopia.
World wheat trade for 2010/11 is nearly unchanged this month. Imports are raised for North Africa and Mexico, but lowered for EU-27 and Iran. Exports are raised for Uruguay, but lowered for Mexico. World exports for 2009/10 are raised 1.6 million tons on the latest available trade data. Large late-season shipments boost 2009/10 Argentina and EU-27 exports 1.0 million tons and 0.6 million tons, respectively.
Global consumption is raised 2.1 million tons for 2010/11 with higher expected feed use for EU-27, Canada, and the United States. Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 3.1 million tons lower with the largest reductions for EU-27 and the United States. Other reductions include Canada, Uruguay, Syria, and Iran. Ending stocks are projected higher for Brazil and Egypt. At the projected 174.7 million tons, 2010/11 stocks remain 50.2 million tons above the recent low in 2007/08.