OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 102.8 million tons, down 2 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 3.408 billion bushels, down 75 million based on both lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is reduced 1.2 million acres to 76.8 million. The soybean yield is projected at 44.4 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushels. Sunflowerseed and peanut production are also projected lower this month while canola and cottonseed production are projected higher.
U.S. soybean exports are increased 35 million bushels to 1.520 billion reflecting strong export sales and reduced export prospects for Argentina resulting from lower beginning stocks. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1.665 billion due to improved prospects for domestic soybean meal disappearance and to a small reduction in the projected soybean meal extraction rate. The September 1 soybean stocks estimate confirmed a third consecutive marketing year of relatively low residual use. For 2010/11 residual use is reduced to 32 million bushels, down 38 million from the previous estimate. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 265 million bushels, down 85 million from last month.
Prices for soybeans and products are all raised this month, supported by strong prices for corn. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $10.00 to $11.50 per bushel, up 85 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $290 to $330 per short ton, up $20 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 39.5 to 43.5 cents per pound, up 2 cents on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.6 million tons, unchanged from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 255.3 million tons, up 0.4 million. Brazil soybean production is raised to 67 million tons, up 2 million due to increased area. India soybean production is raised 0.4 million tons to 9.2 million, also due to increased harvested area. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced this month as lower production for Russia is only partly offset by an increase for Ukraine. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for Australia and India. Global oilseed stocks for 2010/11 are reduced 1.7 million tons to 71.4 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with a reduction for the United States partly offset by projected increases for Brazil and China.