WASDE Oilseeds

May 10, 2010 07:00 PM


Soybean crush for 2010/11 is projected to decline 5 percent. Sharply lower U.S. soybean meal exports are only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use. U.S. export prospects are reduced due to increased export competition from Argentina and India. Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 3 percent as biodiesel production gains more than offset reduced food use. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 2.9 billion pounds, up 700 million from 2009/10. A rebound in South American supplies from last year=s drought-reduced levels is projected to limit U.S. soybean exports to 1.35 billion bushels in 2010/11, down from a record 1.455 billion in 2009/10. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 365 million bushels, up 175 million from the projection for 2009/10.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel compared with $9.50 per bushel in 2009/10. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $230 to $270 per short ton compared with $295 per ton for 2009/10. Soybean oil prices are projected at 34 to 38 cents per pound compared with 36 cents for 2009/10.

Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 440 million tons, up 2.2 million from 2009/10. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 340.9 million tons, up 2 million. Global soybean production is projected to decrease 3 percent to 250.1 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 50 million tons, down 4 million from 2009/10 crop based on reduced harvested area and trend yields. Soybean area is projected lower as producers are expected to increase grain and sunflowerseed plantings. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 65 million tons, down 3 million from 2009/10. A small increase in harvested area is more than offset by lower yields following record yields set for the 2009/10

U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 99.1 million tons, up less than 1 percent from 2009/10. Soybean production is projected at 3.3 billion bushels, down 49 million from the record crop produced in 2009 as increased planted and harvested area are more than offset by lower yields. Harvested area is projected at a record 77.1 million acres based on an average harvested-to-planted ratio. Soybean yields are projected at a trend level of 42.9 bushels per acre, down 1.1 bushels from the 2009 record. Soybean supplies are projected at 3.5 billion bushels, unchanged from 2009/10 as larger beginning stocks offset lower production. Soybean ending stocks for 2009/10 are unchanged at 190 million bushels as increased exports and crush projections are offset by reduced residual. WASDE-482-4

crop. China soybean production is projected at 15.2 million tons, up 0.7 million from 2009/10 due to higher area and yields. Global production of high-oil content seeds (sunflowerseed and rapeseed) is projected to increase 5 percent from 2009/10, mostly due to increased harvested area. Despite only small gains in global oilseed production, 2010/11 oilseed supplies are up 4 percent as beginning stocks are 19 million tons higher than a year ago. Most of the increase is for soybeans in South America.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 4.6 percent in 2010/11. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 8.4 percent in China, accounting for 44 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 87.9 million tons, up 2.5 million from 2009/10. China soybean imports are projected at 49 million tons, accounting for more than half of world soybean trade. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 4.5 percent in 2010/11, led by increases for China and India.

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