Soybean crush for 2010/11 is projected to decline 5 percent. Sharply lower U.S. soybean meal exports are only partly offset by a small increase in domestic soybean meal use. U.S. export prospects are reduced due to increased export competition from Argentina and India. Domestic soybean oil consumption is projected to increase 3 percent as biodiesel production gains more than offset reduced food use. Soybean oil used for biodiesel production is projected at 2.9 billion pounds, up 700 million from 2009/10. A rebound in South American supplies from last year=s drought-reduced levels is projected to limit U.S. soybean exports to 1.35 billion bushels in 2010/11, down from a record 1.455 billion in 2009/10. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 365 million bushels, up 175 million from the projection for 2009/10.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010/11 is projected at $8.00 to $9.50 per bushel compared with $9.50 per bushel in 2009/10. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $230 to $270 per short ton compared with $295 per ton for 2009/10. Soybean oil prices are projected at 34 to 38 cents per pound compared with 36 cents for 2009/10.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 440 million tons, up 2.2 million from 2009/10. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 340.9 million tons, up 2 million. Global soybean production is projected to decrease 3 percent to 250.1 million tons. The Argentina crop is projected at 50 million tons, down 4 million from 2009/10 crop based on reduced harvested area and trend yields. Soybean area is projected lower as producers are expected to increase grain and sunflowerseed plantings. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at 65 million tons, down 3 million from 2009/10. A small increase in harvested area is more than offset by lower yields following record yields set for the 2009/10