WASDE: Oilseeds November Carryover Drops

November 9, 2010 01:53 AM

 OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production is projected at 101.8 million tons, down 1 million from last month as lower soybean and cottonseed production are only partly offset by higher peanut production. Soybean production is forecast at 3.375 billion bushels, down 33 million from last month. The soybean yield is projected at 43.9 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the previous estimate. Soybean exports are raised 50 million bushels to a record 1.57 billion due to increased global import demand and to a record sales pace, especially to China which accounts for over 70 percent of known U.S. soybean export sales through October. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 185 million bushels, down 80 million from last month.

Soybean oil ending stocks for 2010/11 are raised this month due to higher beginning stocks reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and to reduced domestic disappearance reflecting lower projected food use of soybean oil.
Prices for soybeans and products are projected higher for 2010/11. The U.S. season-average soybean price range is projected at $10.70 to $12.20 per bushel, up 70 cents on both ends. The soybean meal price is projected at $310 to $350 per short ton, up 20 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 42.5 to 46.5 cents per pound, up 3 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.7 million tons, up 0.1 million from last month. Increased soybean production is mostly offset by lower sunflowerseed, rapeseed, peanut, and cottonseed production. Global soybean production is projected higher with increases for Brazil, Argentina, India, and South Africa only partly offset by a reduction for the United States. Argentina soybean production is raised 2 million tons to 52 million due to increased area as producers respond to relatively high soybean prices. Brazil soybean production is projected at 67.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month due to increased area. Global sunflowerseed production is projected lower due to reduced estimates for Russia, Argentina, India, and EU-27. Other changes include lower rapeseed production for Australia, lower peanut production for India, and lower cottonseed production for China.
Oilseed trade is projected at 111.4 million tons, up 1.8 million. China soybean imports for 2010/11 are raised to 57 million tons, up 2 million from last month. EU-27 imports of soybeans and soybean meal are raised this month to offset lower sunflowerseed and rapeseed availability.

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