OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 104.8 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month. Soybean production is forecast at a record 3.483 billion bushels, up 50 million from last month based on an increase in the projected yield to a record 44.7 bushels per acre. Production of peanuts and cottonseed are also raised this month.
Soybean exports for 2010/11 are increased 50 million bushels to 1.485 billion reflecting strong early season sales and a projected increase in global import demand, especially for China. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, down 10 million from last month as higher export demand more than offsets the increased supply.
Soybean exports for 2009/10 are projected at a record 1.495 billion bushels, up 25 million from last month reflecting strong shipments in the final weeks of the marketing year. The increase is partly offset with a lower residual, leaving ending stocks projected at 150 million bushels, down 10 million. Other changes for 2009/10 include reduced use of soybean oil for biodiesel and increased soybean oil exports. Season ending soybean oil stocks are projected record high at 3.21 billion pounds.
Prices for soybeans and products are all raised this month, supported by strong prices for corn and wheat. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $9.15 to $10.65 per bushel, up 65 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $270 to $310 per short ton, up $20 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 37.5 to 41.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 440.6 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 254.9 million tons, up 1.2 million mainly due to a higher production forecast for the United States. China soybean production is reduced 0.2 million tons to 14.4 million based on lower yields. Global rapeseed production is projected higher as increased production for Canada more than offsets reduced crops for Russia and Ukraine. Other changes include reduced peanut and cottonseed production for China, reduced cottonseed production for Pakistan, increased cottonseed production for Australia, and reduced palm oil and palm kernel production for Indonesia.
Global oilseed trade for 2010/11 is raised 3.8 million tons to 108.7 million. China soybean imports are raised 3 million tons to 55 million, up from a revised 50 million in 2009/10. Imports are raised to reflect increased protein meal consumption and higher soybean stocks, now projected to reach 15.5 million tons. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower mainly due to reduced soybean stocks in the United States and South America.