WASDE: Record 2012/13 Corn Supplies

May 10, 2012 02:34 AM


COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 416.3 million tons, up 16 percent from 2011/12 with higher area and production for corn, sorghum, barley, and oats. Corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 14.8 billion bushels, up 2.4 billion from 2011/12. 
A projected 5.1-million-acre increase in harvested area and higher expected yields, compared with 2011/12, sharply boost production prospects. The 2012/13 corn yield is projected at a record 166.0 bushels per acre, 2.0 bushels above the 1990-2010 trend reflecting the rapid pace of planting and emergence. Despite the lowest expected carryin in 16 years, corn supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 15.7 billion bushels, up 2.2 billion from 2011/12.
Total U.S. corn use for 2012/13 is projected up 9 percent from 2011/12 on higher feed and residual disappearance, increased use for sweeteners and starch, and larger exports. Feed and residual use for 2012/13 is projected up 900 million bushels reflecting a sharp rebound in residual disappearance with the record crop and an increase in feeding with lower corn prices and higher expected pork and poultry production. Projected corn use for ethanol is unchanged on the year as weak gasoline consumption limits domestic blending opportunities. 
Corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 200 million bushels higher than in 2011/12 on abundant domestic supplies, lower prices, and higher expected China demand. Record foreign corn supplies, however, are expected to limit the increase in U.S. shipments. U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 1.9 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion bushels from the current year projection. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20 to $5.00 per bushel, down sharply from the 2011/12 record projected at $5.95 to $6.25 per bushel.
Projected corn ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 50 million bushels to 851 million with lower expected June-August feed and residual disappearance. The large year-to-year increase in winter wheat production and attractive prices for wheat relative to corn are expected to raise summer wheat feeding. 
Record mid-April corn plantings and early May crop emergence boost prospects for early 2012-crop corn usage before the September 1 beginning of the 2012/13 marketing year. As in recent years, this late-summer new-crop usage is expected to displace old-crop usage and boost carryout.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected at a record 1,389.2 million tons, up 6 percent from 2011/12. Global corn production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 945.8 million tons, up 75.3 million from 2011/12, and the 6th straight year that world corn output has set a new record. Foreign corn production is also projected to be a record at 570.1 million tons, up 13.6 million with the largest increases for Argentina, Mexico, Canada, South Africa, China, and Ukraine.   Global corn trade is projected higher for 2012/13 with imports raised 6 percent mostly supporting higher corn feeding in China, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, EU-27, and the Middle East. 
Global corn food, seed, and industrial use is also raised with increases in corn processing expected for China, Argentina, EU-27, and Brazil. Global corn consumption is projected at a record 921.0 million tons, up 53.7 million from 2011/12 with more than half of the increase in foreign markets.   World corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 152.3 million tons, up 24.8 million from 2011/12, and the highest since 2000/01.



See all of the data, coverage and analysis of today's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.




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Spell Check

11/3/2012 07:42 AM

  And there will be perfect weather and harvest will be done by the beginning of September. Santa Claus will be there handing out trillions of dollars to all that have the foresight to forward contract their whole crop NOW. Nothing could possibly happen that will stop this pie in the sky projection from happening. Even the Easter Bunny is guaranteeing the yield. Never before in history have we seen such down to earth projections. Stay tuned, the government has made a deal with Santa for the rights on the fuel that makes the reindeer fly. After forming a coalition with the big 3 machinery manufacturers, all farmers will enjoy the benefits as well since all that is needed is a very small change to older equipment to make them run on this as well. Fuel costs next to nothing!!!! Incredible power to boot. Stay tuned for more developments. Rumor has it that a deal is being brokered with the largest electric suppliers for the power which lights Rudolph's nose. In this unbelievable twist, New York City will be lit with the power from a single candle-sized portion of this energy!!! But this is only rumor at this point.


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