WASDE: Record Soybean Yield Estimated at 45.4 Bu. per Acre

11:10AM Aug 12, 2014
USDA soybean closeup
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OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 113.7 million tons, up 0.6 million from last month mainly due to a higher soybean production forecast. Soybean production for 2014/15 is forecast at 3,816 million bushels, up 16 million due to a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 84.1 million acres, unchanged from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast is a record 45.4 bushels per acre, 0.2 bushels above last month and 2.1 bushels above last year. Soybean supplies for 2014/15 are projected slightly above last month based on the higher production forecast. With minimal supply gains, soybean exports and crush are unchanged, leaving ending stocks projected at 430 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast at $9.35 to $11.35 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $340 to $380, down 10 dollars at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 35 to 39 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.

U.S. soybean balance sheet changes for 2013/14 include reduced imports and increased exports. Imports are lowered 5 million bushels to 80 million based in part on revised import data for September – December 2013 from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1,640 million reflecting both revised export data for September through December 2013 from the Department of Commerce and inspections data for July 2014. These changes are offset with lower residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels. With these changes, the 2013/14 soybean stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 4.2 percent, which if realized would be the lowest in more than 40 years.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 521.8 million tons, slightly below last month. Gains for rapeseed and cottonseed are more than offset by reductions for soybeans, sunflowerseed, and peanuts. Higher soybean production for the United States is offset by a reduction for India where the delayed monsoon results in lower planted area. Rapeseed production is raised for China, EU, and Ukraine. These gains are partly offset by a smaller crop projected for Canada with lower area resulting from flooding in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Other changes include lower sunflowerseed production for Russia, reduced peanut production for China, and increased cottonseed production for India.


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