RICE: U.S. rice production in 2010/11 is forecast at a record 255.3 million cwt, up 9.4 million from last month due to both an increase in area harvested and yield. Harvested area is estimated at 3.62 million acres, up 130,000 acres from last month and the second highest on record. The average yield is estimated at 7,047 pounds per acre, up 8 pounds per acre. Long-grain production is estimated at a record 191.8 million cwt, up 4.6 million from last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 63.5 million, an increase of 4.9 million.
All rice beginning stocks for 2010/11 are raised 2.8 million cwt from last month to 36.7 million based on USDA’s Rice Stocks report released on August 27. The import projection is reduced slightly based in part on the revised 2009/10 estimate and the recent trend of little to no growth in imports. Domestic and residual use for 2010/11 is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 127.0 million based mostly on a reduction in the 2009/10 estimate.
Exports for 2010/11 are projected at 119.0 million cwt, up 5.0 million cwt from last month, and up 8.8 million from the revised 2009/10 estimate. Long-grain exports are raised 3.0 million cwt to 83.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are up 2.0 million to 36.0 million. Larger exports are expected to the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere. Ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 65.5 million cwt, up 8.7 million from last month, up 28.8 million from 2009/10, and the largest stocks since 1985/86.
The 2010/11 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $10.30 to $11.30 per cwt, down 45 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to $14.00 per cwt for 2009/10. The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $8.50 to $9.50 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt from last month compared to $12.80 per cwt for 2009/10. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.00 to $17.00 per cwt, down $1.00 per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $17.70 per cwt for 2009/10.
Projected global 2010/11 rice supplies and use are both lowered from last month. Global rice production is projected at a record 454.6 million tons, down 4.6 million tons from last month's estimate, mainly due to large declines for several countries including China, Indonesia, and Pakistan.
China’s 2010/11 rice crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 136.0 million, due mainly to a decrease in the early rice crop. Both area and yield are reduced by early season drought in some areas combined with late-season flooding in other areas. Indonesia’s 2010/11 rice crop is reduced 2.0 million tons to 38.0 million, based in part on a report from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Jakarta. Indonesia’s 2009/10 rice crop is also reduced—a reduction of 1.7 million tons to 37.1 million. Indonesia’s yield growth has stagnated due to weather, pests, and disease problems. Pakistan’s 2010/11 rice crop is reduced by 1.2 million tons or 18 percent to 5.3 million as severe flooding lowered both area and average yield.
Global 2010/11 exports are reduced by 0.6 million tons to 31.0 million, mainly due to a reduction for Pakistan. Global consumption is lowered by nearly 2.3 million tons, mainly due to decreases for China (-0.5 million) and Indonesia (-1.35 million). Global ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 94.6 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month, but up slightly from 2009/10. Stocks are lowered for China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Iran, and raised for the United States.