WASDE: Red Meat Production Reduced

December 11, 2012 01:20 AM

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month as lower pork production more than offsets higher beef production. Beef production is raised as both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter is expected to be higher and forecast carcass weights are raised. Pork production forecasts are reduced from last month as first-quarter slaughter is expected to be slightly lower and carcass weights are reduced in the first half of the year. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 28, providing anindication of producer farrowing intentions for the first half of 2013. Poultry production forecasts for 2013 are unchanged. For 2012, the total meat production forecast is raised as higher forecast fourth-quarter beef and broiler production more than offsets lower expected pork production. Cattle slaughter has been higher than expected and carcass weights remain high. Hog slaughter and carcass weights in the fourth quarter are forecast lower than last month. The broiler production forecast is raised based on production data to date. Turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is raised for both 2012 and 2013 based on hatchery data.

Red meat and poultry import and export forecasts are unchanged from last month. Cattle prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013, reflecting strong demand for cattle through the end of this year and into 2013. The hog price forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 are raised as lower forecast production is expected to support prices. Broiler prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013 as demand has been firm. The turkey price forecast for 2012 is raised slightly, but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged from last month. The 2012 and 2013 milk production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Lower forecast fat basis exports in 2012 reflect weakness in butter exports but exports in 2013 are raised on higher expected cheese and whey protein solids shipments.

Cheese prices are forecast lower in 2012 on current weakness but the forecast is raised for 2013 as demand is expected to improve. Butter prices for both 2012 and 2013 are lowered as
demand is expected to remain relatively weak. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are raised for 2012 and 2013. The Class III price for 2012 is reduced on the lower cheese price but the Class IV price is unchanged as the lower butter price is offset by a higher NDM price. For 2013, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised as prices for cheese, NDM, and whey are increased. The 2012 all milk price is unchanged from last month at $18.50 to $18.60 per cwt, but the range of the 2013 price is tightened to $19.15 to $19.95 per cwt.


Coverage, Analysis of the Dec. 11 USDA Reports
See all of the data, coverage and analysis of the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

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