RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2010/11 are projected at a
record 299.8 million cwt, down 9.6 million from last month, but
up 29.9 million from the previous year. Beginning stocks,
imports, and production are lowered from a month ago. U.S.
beginning stocks for 2010/11 are lowered 4.5 million cwt to 33.9
million because of changes made to the 2009/10 supply and use
balance. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2010/11
U.S. rice crop is a record 245.9 million cwt, down 4.1 million
from last month's projection, but up 26.0 million from 2009/10.
Average yield is forecast at 7,039 pounds per acre, down 118
pounds per acre from last month’s trend-based projection, and a
decrease of 46 pounds per acre from last year. Area harvested
at 3.5 million acres is unchanged from a month ago. Long-grain
production is forecast at a record 187.2 million cwt, down 2.8
million from last month, while combined medium- and short-
grain production is forecast at 58.6 million, down 1.4 million from
a month ago. The import projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to
20.0 million based mostly on the revised estimate for 2009/10,
indicating slower growth.
U.S. total rice use for 2010/11 is projected at a record 243.0
million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month, and an increase
of 7.0 million from 2009/10. Domestic and residual use is
unchanged from last month. The export projection is raised 1.0
million cwt from last month to 114.0 million based mostly on
large food aid announcements for shipment early in the
marketing year. The makeup of the export projection is changed
from last month, as the combined milled- and brown-rice export
projection is raised 5.0 million cwt, and the rough rice export
projection is lowered 4.0 million cwt. The long-grain export
projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 80.0 million, and the
combined medium- and short-grain estimate is unchanged from
a month ago. U.S. rice ending stocks for 2010/11 are estimated
at 56.8 million cwt, down 10.6 million from last month, but up
22.9 million from the previous year, and the highest stocks since
1985/86. The all rice and by-class prices for 2010/11 are
unchanged from a month ago.
The U.S. 2009/10 export estimate is raised 4.0 million cwt to
109.0 million based on U.S. Census data through June and U.S.
Export Sales data through July 29. Long-grain exports are
raised 2.5 million cwt to 74.5 million, and combined medium-
and short-grain exports are raised 1.5 million to a record 34.5
million. Additionally, the 2009/10 import estimate is lowered 0.5
million cwt to 19.5 million, based on Census data through June.
The changes in 2009/10 trade led to a corresponding reduction
in 2009/10 ending stocks.
Projected global 2010/11 total supplies are raised from a month
ago primarily due to an increase in beginning stocks, while
production and imports are nearly the same as last month. The
increase in beginning stocks of 5.5 million tons is due primarily
to an increase in India’s 2009/10 rice crop combined with a
reduction in estimated domestic and residual use—both
estimates are based on a recently received report from the
Agricultural Counselor’s office in New Delhi. India’s 2009/10
rice crop is estimated at 89.1 million tons, up 1.6 million from
last month, and domestic consumption and residual is estimated
at 85.4 million, down 3.9 million from the July estimate. Global
rice production for 2010/11 is projected at a record 459.2 million
tons, nearly the same as a month ago. Global consumption is
raised from a month ago largely due to an increase for India.
World ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 97.5 million
tons, up 0.9 million from last month, largely the result of upward
revisions for Bangladesh, Burma, India, and Turkey.