U.S. 2010/11 rice use is projected at a record 245.0 million cwt, 2 percent above the year earlier. U.S. domestic and residual use is projected at a record 138.0 million cwt, 2 percent above 2009/10. Exports are projected at 107.0 million cwt, 2 percent above revised 2009/10. Despite an expected increase in global import demand, competition for those markets will be greater as U.S. and competitor supplies are expected to be large. U.S. ending stocks in 2010/11 are projected at 51.4 million cwt, 69 percent above the previous year, and the largest stocks since 1985/86.
The 2010/11 long-grain season-average farm price is projected at $10.00 to $11.00 per cwt compared to a revised $12.90 to $13.10 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $17.65 to $17.85 for the year earlier. The 2010/11 all rice price is projected at $11.15 to $12.15 per cwt, compared to a revised $14.05 to $14.25 per cwt for 2009/10. Large domestic and global supplies and lower Asian prices will pressure U.S. prices.
Global 2010/11 rice production is projected at a record 459.7 million tons, up 17.6 million or 4 percent from 2009/10. World disappearance (consumption and residual) is projected at a record 453.4 million tons, up 10.9 million or 2 percent. Large crops are projected for most of Asia including record or near-record crops in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Additionally, large crops are forecast for the U.S., EU-27, and Nigeria.
Global exports in 2010/11 are projected at 31.4 million tons, up 1.75 million tons or 6 percent from the previous year, and the largest exports since 2007/08. Exports are expected to increase from the previous year in the U.S., Argentina, China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Uruguay, and Vietnam. Larger imports are projected for the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Global ending stocks are expected to increase 6.3 million tons or 7 percent from 2009/10 to 96.6 million tons—the largest stocks since 2002/03. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2010/11 at 21.3 percent is up from last year's 20.4 percent, and the highest since 2003/04.