WASDE Rice

May 10, 2010 07:00 PM
 

RICE: Note:

Larger U.S. 2010/11 rice supplies, combined with a modest increase in use, will boost projected ending stocks and lower farm prices. Total rice supplies in 2010/11 are projected at a record 296.4 million cwt, 9 percent above the previous year, and 7 percent above the previous record in 2005/06. U.S. rice production is projected at a record 244.0 million cwt, 11 percent above 2009/10, and 5 percent above the previous record in 2004/05. Planted area in 2009 is estimated at 3.41 million acres, up 9 percent from 2009 and the largest area since 1999. Harvested area is estimated at 3.39 million acres and is an average of the previous five-year harvested-to-planted ratios. Average rice yield is projected at a near-record 7,202 pounds per acre, up 2 percent from the previous year, but down less than 1 percent from the 2007/08 record. Imports for 2009/10 are projected at 22.0 million cwt, up 5 percent from the previous year.

The source of the average milling yield used in the conversion of milled to rough rice in the WASDE has changed for the 2000/01 through 2010/11 marketing years. The average milling yield used, expressed as a percent, from the Farm Service Agency (FSA), is calculated from warehouse stored loan data for the different rice classes. Previously, data supplied from the USA Rice Federation were used to calculate the average milling yield (these data are no longer available). The 2010/11 average milling yield at 68.86 percent is based on the average of the previous 5 years. WASDE-482-3

U.S. 2010/11 rice use is projected at a record 245.0 million cwt, 2 percent above the year earlier. U.S. domestic and residual use is projected at a record 138.0 million cwt, 2 percent above 2009/10. Exports are projected at 107.0 million cwt, 2 percent above revised 2009/10. Despite an expected increase in global import demand, competition for those markets will be greater as U.S. and competitor supplies are expected to be large. U.S. ending stocks in 2010/11 are projected at 51.4 million cwt, 69 percent above the previous year, and the largest stocks since 1985/86.

The 2010/11 long-grain season-average farm price is projected at $10.00 to $11.00 per cwt compared to a revised $12.90 to $13.10 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $17.65 to $17.85 for the year earlier. The 2010/11 all rice price is projected at $11.15 to $12.15 per cwt, compared to a revised $14.05 to $14.25 per cwt for 2009/10. Large domestic and global supplies and lower Asian prices will pressure U.S. prices.

Global 2010/11 rice production is projected at a record 459.7 million tons, up 17.6 million or 4 percent from 2009/10. World disappearance (consumption and residual) is projected at a record 453.4 million tons, up 10.9 million or 2 percent. Large crops are projected for most of Asia including record or near-record crops in Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Additionally, large crops are forecast for the U.S., EU-27, and Nigeria.

Global exports in 2010/11 are projected at 31.4 million tons, up 1.75 million tons or 6 percent from the previous year, and the largest exports since 2007/08. Exports are expected to increase from the previous year in the U.S., Argentina, China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Uruguay, and Vietnam. Larger imports are projected for the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. Global ending stocks are expected to increase 6.3 million tons or 7 percent from 2009/10 to 96.6 million tons—the largest stocks since 2002/03. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2010/11 at 21.3 percent is up from last year's 20.4 percent, and the highest since 2003/04.

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