WASDE: Forecast For Rice Crop Jumps 21 Percent

11:10AM Aug 12, 2014
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RICE: U.S. 2014/15 total rice supplies are projected at 282.6 million cwt, up 2.8 million from last month on higher production. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the U.S. 2014/15 rice crop is 228.8 million cwt, up nearly 21 percent from the previous year. Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,560 pounds per acre, up 91 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but down nearly 2 percent from last year’s record. Area harvested is unchanged at 3.03 million acres. Long-grain production is forecast at 169.3 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 59.5 million, up 0.3 million and 2.5 million from a month ago, respectively. The all rice import projection is 21.0 million cwt, down 9 percent from last year.

U.S. 2014/15 total rice use is projected at 243.0 million cwt, 3.0 million above last month, and 12 percent above the previous year. Total domestic and residual use and exports are forecast at 134.0 million cwt and 109.0 million, up 1.0 million and 2.0 million, respectively. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 75.0 million and 34.0 million, respectively. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 39.6 million cwt, down 0.2 million from last month, but 21 percent above the previous year.

The 2014/15 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $12.00 to $13.00 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The 2014/15 combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $17.50 to $18.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt from a month ago. The 2014/15 all rice price is projected at $13.80 to $14.80 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month.

The projected decrease in global 2014/15 total supply is greater than the drop in total use resulting in a decrease in world ending stocks. Global production is lowered 2.1 million tons to 477.3 million, still a record, due primarily to forecast reductions for Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia, and India, offset partially by an increase in the United States. India’s 2014/15 rice crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 103.0 million, attributed mostly to a slower rate of planting of the kharif rice crop due to the late start of the monsoon and below normal precipitation in some rice growing areas. Global beginning stocks for 2014/15 are lowered 1.4 million tons due mostly to a 1.3-million-ton reduction for Indonesia—where the 2013/14 crop is lowered to 36.0 million tons. World 2014/15 consumption is reduced 0.3 million tons to 482.1 million, still a record. Global trade is lowered 0.3 million tons due mostly to a reduction in exports from India, partially offset by an increase in the United States. Global 2014/15 ending stocks are projected at 105.4 million tons, down 3.2 million from last month, and a decline of 4.7 million from the previous year. The largest stocks reductions from a month ago are in Bangladesh, Brazil, Indonesia, and India.



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