WASDE: Rice Export Forecast Raised

December 11, 2012 01:42 AM

RICE: No changes are made on the supply side of the U.S. 2012/13 all rice and rice-by-type supply and use balance sheets. Although total use for all rice is unchanged at 230.0 million cwt, the export forecast is raised 2.0 million to 105.0 million, and domestic and residual use is lowered the same amount to 125.0 million. The increase in the export forecast is all in longgrain rice destined for markets in Latin America. The rough rice and the combined brown- and milled-rice export forecasts are each raised 1.0 million cwt from last month. The long-grain export forecast at 74.0 million cwt is up nearly 11 percent from the prior year. All rice ending stocks at 30.1 million cwt are unchanged from a month ago. The rice-by-type ending stocks projections at 15.1 million cwt for long-grain rice and 12.9 million for combined medium- and short-grain rice are also the same as a month ago.

The 2012/13 all rice and rice-by-type season-average farm price forecasts are unchanged from last month. The long-grain, combined medium- and short-grain, and all rice seasonaverage farm price forecasts (midpoints) are $14.20 per cwt, $17.00, and $15.00, respectively. World 2012/13 rice supplies are up more than the increase in total use resulting in a slight increase in global ending stocks. Global rice production is projected at a record 465.3 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month due primarily to higher forecasts for Japan, North Korea, and Vietnam. Vietnam’s 2012/13 rice crop is raised 610,000 tons to a record 27.7 million tons based on a U.S. Agricultural Attaché report from Vietnam. According to the report, the Mekong River Delta expects to reach a rice planted area of up to 1.68 million hectares, over 100,000 hectares more than average for the Spring crop due to the favorable moderate flooding level that also allowed growers to start planting the crop earlier. North Korea’s crop is raised 16 percent to 1.74 million tons based on a report from the World Food Program. The North Korean rice crop benefited from an increase in fertilizer availability and favorable growing season and harvest weather. Japan’s crop is raised 3 percent to 7.8 million tons, as both area harvested and average yield are raised, based on the latest official government estimate from Japan. Global consumption for 2012/13 is forecast at a record 468.5 million tons due mostly to increases for Japan, North Korea, and a number of countries in SubSaharan Africa. Global 2012/13 trade is changed little from a month ago. World ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 102.5 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month, but down 3.2 million from the year earlier. Ending stocks are raised for Vietnam and Japan but lowered for Iraq, Iran, and South Korea.


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