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WASDE: Rice Price Projections Lowered

11:05AM Jun 11, 2014

Rice supply and use 2014/15 balance sheets are changed little from last month. All rice beginning stocks for 2014/15 are raised 3.0 million cwt, long-grain rice stocks are raised 2.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain stocks are up 1.0 million.

The 2014/15 beginning stocks changes flow through the balance sheets to 2014/15 ending stocks. All rice 2014/15 ending stocks are raised 3.0 million cwt to 37.3 million—the largest stocks since 2011/12. Long-grain ending stocks are raised 2.0 million cwt to 26.3 million—the largest since 2010/11. Combined medium- and short-grain ending stocks are raised 1.0 million cwt to 8.7 million.

All rice 2013/14 exports are lowered 3.0 million cwt to 92.0 million, long-grain exports are lowered 2.0 million to 62.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports are lowered 1.0 million to 30.0 million. Rough rice exports and milled rice exports for 2013/14 are each lowered 1.5 million cwt to 31.5 million and 60.5 million (rough-equivalent basis), respectively. U.S. exports and export commitments to Central America, Africa, Venezuela, and Northeast Asia are lagging through May compared to a year ago.

The 2014/15 U.S. long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $12.80 to $13.80 per cwt, down 70 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago and compares to a revised $15.10 to $15.70 per cwt for 2013/14.

The 2014/15 combined medium- and short-grain rice season-average farm price is $18.20 to $19.20 per cwt, a decrease of 30 cents per cwt on each end from last month and compares to a revised $17.40 to $18.00 per cwt for 2013/14. The 2014/15 U.S. all rice season-average farm price is projected at $14.40 to $15.40 per cwt, down 60 cents per cwt on each end from a month ago and compares to a revised $15.70 to $16.30 per cwt for 2013/14.

Global 2014/15 rice supply and use is little changed from a month ago. Global rice production is projected at a record 480.7 million tons, unchanged from a month ago. Global 2014/15 trade (imports and exports) are unchanged from a month ago.

Global 2014/15 consumption is lowered slightly from last month. Ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised 0.9 million tons due mostly to an increase for India. Rice production for 2013/14 in India is raised 1.3 million tons to a record 106.3 million tons based on official statistics from the government of India.

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