U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 186.9 million cwt, down 4.0 million from last month and the smallest crop since 1998/99. The decline is entirely due to a decrease in yield. Average yield is estimated at 7,123 pounds per acre, down 150 pounds from last month. Harvested area is unchanged at 2.62 million acres. Long-grain production is forecast at 116.8 million cwt, 2.5 million below last month and the smallest crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is still a record forecast at 70.1 million cwt, down 1.5 million from last month. The import forecast is unchanged at 19.0 million cwt. Domestic and residual use for 2011/12 at 127.0 million cwt is unchanged from a month ago. Total rice exports are projected at 91.0 million cwt, down 2.0 million from last month. The decrease is entirely in the milled and brown rice category, as the rough rice export forecast is unchanged. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain export projections are each lowered 1.0 million cwt to 60 million and 31.0 million, respectively. Total rice ending stocks are projected at 36.4 million cwt, down 1.9 million from last month.
The 2011/12 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.50 to $16.50 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago.
Projected global 2011/12 rice supply, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are increased from a month ago. World rice production is forecast at a record 461.4 million tons, up 3.0 million from last month due primarily to an increase in India. Thailand’s 2011/12 rice crop is raised 0.5 million in anticipation of a bumper main-season crop in the Northeast and large off-season crop in the North and the Central Plateau that will likely offset the production losses from the recent flooding. India’s 2011/12 rice crop is forecast at a record 100.0 million tons, up 3 percent from last month and up 5 percent from the previous year. India benefitted from a near-record monsoon in 2011. Partially offsetting the production increases are reductions for Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United States. Global consumption is raised 1.8 million mostly due to an increase in India. Global exports are raised with increases for India and Vietnam, partially offset by decreases in the United States and Pakistan. Imports are raised for Bangladesh and Nigeria. Global 2011/12 ending stocks are projected at 101.4 million tons, up 2.8 million from last month, 3.6 million above 2010/11 and the largest stocks since 2002/03. Forecast ending stocks are raised for Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines, but lowered for Vietnam and the United States.