U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is forecast at 190.9 million cwt, up 2.8 million from last month due entirely to an increase in yield. Harvested area is estimated at 2.62 million acres, down 20,000 acres. The average yield is estimated at a record 7,273 pounds per acre, up 159 pounds per acre from last month. Long-grain production is estimated at 119.2 million cwt, down 4.9 million from last month, and the smallest crop since 1996/97. Combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at a record 71.6 million, an increase of 7.7 million from last month.
All rice beginning stocks for 2011/12 are lowered 2.7 million cwt from last month to 48.4 million (rough-equivalent basis) based on USDA’s Rice Stocks report released on August 26. The import projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 19.0 million as it is expected that more long-grain rice will be imported due to tighter domestic supplies.
Exports for 2011/12 are projected at 93.0 million cwt, down 4.0 million cwt from last month, and down 18.6 million from the revised 2010/11 estimate. Long-grain exports are lowered 5.0 million cwt from last month to 61.0 million, and combined medium- and short-grain exports are raised 1.0 million to 32.0 million. The decrease in the export projection is due mostly to a much tighter supply situation, but additionally to an expected increase in competition from South American exporters in Western Hemisphere long-grain markets. Long-grain exports to Iraq are also expected to be lower. Increased competition principally from Egypt is expected to reduce medium-grain exports to Libya. All rice ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 38.3 million cwt, up 5.1 million from last month, but down 10.1 million from the revised 2010/11 stocks.
The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt on both ends of the range from last month compared to $11.10 per cwt for 2010/11. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, up 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $18.40 per cwt for 2010/11. The 2010/11 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, up 80 cents per cwt on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $12.70 per cwt for 2010/11. The increase in prices is due to both expected tighter domestic supplies, for long-grain, and higher global prices as a result of government policies in Thailand aimed at supporting domestic rice prices. Additionally, higher commodity prices in general will help to support rice prices.
Projected global 2011/12 rice supply and use are increased from last month. Global rice production is projected at a record 458.4 million tons, up 2.1 million tons from last month, primarily due to larger expected crops in Brazil, China, the Philippines, and the United States. China’s 2011/12 rice crop is increased 1.0 million tons to 139.0 million, due mainly to an increase in the early rice crop. Brazil’s rice crop is raised nearly a million tons due to both an increase in area and expected yield. The recent surge in global prices accounts for the increase in planted area in Brazil from last month’s forecast. Global 2011/12 trade is nearly unchanged from last month. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons from a month ago due mostly to China. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 98.7 million tons, up 0.7 million from last month, and the largest stocks since 2002/03. Stocks are raised for Brazil, China, the Philippines, and the United States.
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