U.S. 2014/15 all rice supplies are forecast up 6 percent from 2013/14, and total use is up 5 percent—leading to a 17 percent increase in 2014/15 ending stocks. Beginning stocks for 2014/15 are forecast at 29.3 million cwt, down 20 percent from the previous year.
Projected 2014/15 imports at 22.0 million cwt are unchanged from 2013/14. U.S. rice production for 2014/15 is projected at 213.0 million cwt, up 12 percent from 2013/14. Long-grain production is projected at 161.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain production at 52.0 million.
Harvested all rice area is estimated at 2.85 million acres. Long-grain harvested area at 2.21 million acres is up 25 percent from the previous year. Combined medium- and short-grain harvested area at 0.65 million acres is down 8 percent from 2013/14.
The decline in California medium-grain plantings due to drought and water restrictions have attracted more acres of medium-grain rice in the Delta where plantings in 2014 are projected up 39 percent. All rice average yield is projected at 7,468 pounds per acre, down 3 percent from the previous year’s record—based on trend analysis by rice class.
U.S. 2014/15 all rice total use is projected at 230.0 million cwt with domestic and residual use at 128.0 million, and exports at 102.0 million. Long-grain rice exports are projected at 72.0 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain rice exports at 30.0 million. Larger long-grain supplies in 2014/15 and lower projected prices are expected to expand exports, but competition for markets is expected to be strong.
Exports of medium-grain rice will be constrained by tighter U.S. supplies because of reduced plantings in California. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 34.3 million cwt, with long-grain ending stocks at 24.3 million cwt, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 7.7 million.
The U.S. 2014/15 long-grain rice season-average farm price is projected at $13.50 to $14.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $15.20 to $15.80 for the previous year. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $18.50 to $19.50 per cwt, compared to a revised $17.70 to $18.30 for the year earlier. The 2014/15 all rice price is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, compared to a revised $15.80 to $16.40 per cwt for 2013/14.
Global 2014/15 total rice supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at 592.0 and 482.2 million tons, respectively, and results in a 1.5-million decrease in world ending stocks. Global 2014/15 rice production is projected at a record 480.7 million tons, up 4.6 million from 2013/14. Record to near-record rice crops are projected in Asia—assuming normal weather. Record crops are projected for the major exporters including India, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Additionally, large crops are forecast for other exporters including Burma, Cambodia, and Egypt. On the importer side, record or near-record crops are forecast for Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Global 2014/15 consumption is projected at a record 482.2 million tons, up 1.5 percent from the previous year. Global exports in 2014/15 are projected at a record 41.4 million tons, up 1.0 million from 2013/14. Thailand is forecast to be the largest global rice exporter in 2014/15 with exports of 10.0 million tons followed by India at 9.0 million and Vietnam at 6.7 million.
Large 2014/15 imports are projected for China, the Middle East, and Sub-Saharan Africa. China’s imports have surged since 2011/12 and are forecast to be the largest importer with imports of 3.7 million tons in 2014/15. China’s annual consumption needs have overtaken production since 2012/13 resulting in declining stocks. Strong domestic prices in China have encouraged imports of lower-priced rice from Burma, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Global 2014/15 ending stocks are expected to decrease 1.5 million tons to 109.8 million. The largest year-to-year stocks reductions occur in India and China—down 1.0 million tons and 0.65 million, respectively.
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