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WASDE: Rice Yield Forecast Increased

11:05AM Aug 12, 2013

RICE: U.S. total rice supplies for 2013/14 are projected at 238.4 million cwt, up 2.9 million from last month. Projected beginning stocks and production are each raised from a month ago, while imports are lowered. USDA's first survey-based forecast of the 2013/14 U.S. rice crop is 181.4 million cwt, up 1.9 million from last month's projection, but down 9 percent from the previous year.

Average all rice yield is forecast at 7,406 pounds per acre, up 76 pounds per acre from last month’s projection, but down only slightly from last year’s record. Area harvested is unchanged at 2.45 million acres.

Long-grain production is forecast at 124.8 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain production at 56.6 million, up 0.8 million and 1.1 million from a month ago, respectively.

The all rice import projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 22.5 million due in part to an expected larger crop. All rice beginning stocks for 2013/14 are raised 2.0 million cwt to 34.6 million because of a decrease in the 2012/13 export estimate to 107.0 million.

U.S. total rice use for 2013/14 is projected at 208.0 million cwt, up 1.0 million cwt from last month. The all rice export projection is raised 1.0 million cwt to 96.0 million cwt—all in medium/short grain. Long-grain and combined medium- and short-grain exports are projected at 66.0 million and 30.0 million, respectively. All rice domestic and residual use is unchanged at 112.0 million cwt. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 30.4 million cwt, up 1.9 million from last month, but 12 percent below the previous year.

The 2013/14 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $14.00 to $15.00 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.80 to $16.80 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The all rice price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per cwt, down 40 cents per cwt on each end of the range.

A year-to-year smaller crop and tighter supplies, particularly for long-grain rice, are expected to provide some support to prices; however, plentiful supplies among the major Asian exporters will dampen the increase. Global 2013/14 export prices are expected to be lower than a year ago.

The projected decrease in global 2013/14 total supply is greater than the drop in total use thus resulting in a decrease in world ending stocks. Global production is lowered 0.8 million tons to 477.9 million, still a record, due primarily to a forecast reduction for China, which is partially offset by increases for Pakistan and the United States. China’s 2013/14 rice crop is lowered 1.0 million tons to 143.0 million nearly the same as 2012/13.

Hot dry weather in the lower Yangtze River Valley and in the southwest has stressed both the single and late rice crops. Rice production is likely to be negatively affected in Hunan, Jiangxi, and Anhui provinces. Global beginning stocks for 2013/14 are lowered 0.6 million tons due mostly to a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Indonesia—Indonesia’s 2012/13 crop is lowered nearly a million tons to 36.6 million. World 2013/14 consumption is reduced 0.8 million tons with most of the decline in Indonesia and China.

Global trade is raised 0.7 million tons with increases in exports for India, Pakistan, the United States, and Vietnam. Import projections are raised for China and a number of West African countries, which are partially offset by reductions for Turkey and the United States. Global ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 107.5 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month, but an increase of 2.7 million from the previous year. The largest stocks reduction for 2013/14 is for India, down 0.5 million from a month ago.


Coverage, Analysis of the Aug. 12 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Aug. 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.