RICE: The U.S. 2013/14 rice crop is estimated at 189.9 million cwt, up 1.2 million from the previous estimate. Average yield is estimated at a record 7,694 pounds per acre, up 34 pounds per acre. Harvested area is estimated at 2.468 million acres, up 4,000 acres from the previous estimate. Long-grain rice production is estimated at 131.9 million cwt, up 2.9 million from last month, and combined medium- and short-grain production is lowered 1.7 million to 58.0 million. Rice imports for 2013/14 are unchanged from last month.
All rice and the long-grain rice 2013/14 domestic and residual use projections are raised 4.0 million cwt from a month ago as indicated by the December 1 stocks with all rice at 120.0 million cwt and long-grain at 88.0 million. Combined medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use is projected at 32.0 million, unchanged from last month. The all rice export projection is lowered 1.0 million cwt to 99.0 million—all in the long-grain class. The pace of exports and sales of long-grain rice have been slow to markets in Sub-Saharan Africa and Central America. The 2013/14 rough rice export projection is unchanged at 35.0 million cwt. Exports of milled and brown rice are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 64.0 million (rough-equivalent basis). All rice ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 28.3 million cwt, down 1.8 million from last month, and a decrease of 22 percent from a year ago. Long-grain rice ending stocks are forecast at 17.3 million cwt, down slightly from last month, and a decrease of 21 percent from 2012/13. Combined medium- and short-grain rice ending stocks are projected at 8.7 million cwt, down 1.7 million from last month, and a decline of 29 percent from last year.
The Rice Stocks reported total rough rice stocks at 132.8 million cwt as of December 1 and total milled stocks at 6.6 million (9.4 million cwt on a rough-equivalent basis). Total rice stocks on a rough-equivalent basis are 142.2 million, down 10 percent from a year earlier. Long-grain stocks as of December 1 are estimated at 89.1 million (rough-equivalent basis) and combined medium- and short-grain stocks at 50.3 million.
The 2013/14 long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $14.80 to $15.80 per cwt, unchanged from last month. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.30 to $17.30 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $15.30 to $16.30 per cwt, down 10 cents per cwt on both ends of the range.
Global total supplies of rice for 2013/14 are raised more than the increase in total use resulting in an increase in world ending stocks. Global rice production is projected at 471.2 million tons, still a record, and up 0.5 million from last month due primarily to increased forecasts for Brazil, Pakistan, and the United States. Brazil’s crop is raised 0.1 million tons because of an increase in area. Pakistan’s rice crop is raised 0.4 million tons because of an increase in average yield. The U.S. rice crop is up on both an increase in area and yield. Beginning stocks for 2013/14 are increased 0.6 million tons from last month due mostly to increases for Pakistan and Thailand. Global consumption for 2013/14 is forecast at a record 473.1 million tons due mostly to increases for Brazil and the United States. Export projections are raised for Argentina and Pakistan, and lowered slightly for the United States. Imports are raised for the Philippines—up 0.2 million tons to 1.4 million. Global rice ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 105.2 million tons, up 0.9 million from last month, but a decrease of 1.9 million from the prior year. Ending stocks projections are raised for Pakistan, the Philippines, and Thailand.