WASDE: Smallest Rice Crop in Several Years

June 9, 2011 02:33 AM
RICE: U.S. 2011/12 rice total supply and use are both lowered from last month and result in an overall decrease in ending stocks. U.S. 2011/12 rice production is projected at 199.5 million cwt, down 11.5 million (-5.5%) from last month due entirely to a decrease in planted area. This is the smallest crop since 2007/08. Long-grain production is lowered 10.5 million cwt to 134.0 million, while combined medium-and short-grain production is lowered 1.0 million to 65.5 million. All rice planted area is lowered 168,000 acres (-5.6%) to 2.85 million due to the impact of Mississippi River Delta flooding in the mid-South with long-grain rice in Arkansas and Missouri accounting for most of the decline. The planting intentions estimate published in Prospective Plantings on March 31 at 3.018 million acres is adjusted downward based primarily on analysis of satellite data conducted by the Foreign Agriculture Service and with analysis performed by the rice Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee. Harvested area at 2.83 million acres is calculated based on the average harvested-to-planted ratios by rice class for the period 2006/07 through 2010/11. The projected yield is calculated from the 5-year Olympic average (2006/07-2010/11) by rice class. The all rice average yield is projected at 7,040 pounds per acre, up fractionally from last month. The increase is due to the changing weights by rice class (lower share of long-grain and higher share of relatively higher yielding medium/short-grain). Beginning stocks of all rice for 2011/12 are raised 1.0 million cwt based on a change in the 2010/11 balance sheet—the 2010/11 export forecast is lowered to 113.5 million cwt.
The 2011/12 total use projection is lowered 4.0 million cwt to 232.0 million due to decreases in both domestic and residual use and in exports. Domestic and residual use is reduced 1.0 million cwt to 126.0 million, and exports are lowered 3.0 million cwt—all in long-grain rice—to 106.0 million. Smaller exports are expected in 2011/12 to markets in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Western Hemisphere. The rough rice export projection is reduced 1.0 million cwt to 39.0 million, and combined milled and brown rice (on a rough-equivalent basis) is lowered 2.0 million to 67.0 million. Ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 42.1 million cwt, down 6.5 million or 13 percent from a month ago, and down 14.5 million or 26 percent from 2010/11.
The 2011/12 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price is projected at $11.30 to $12.30 per cwt, up 30 cents per cwt on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $15.00 to $16.00 per cwt, unchanged from a month ago. The 2011/12 all rice price is projected at $12.20 to $13.20 per cwt, up 20 cents per cwt on each end of the range.
Global 2011/12 rice supply and use are lowered from a month ago. Global production is projected at a record 456.4 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month’s forecast, primarily due to a decrease for China. Additionally, production projections are raised for Egypt and Guyana, but lowered for the United States and Cuba. China’s 2011/12 rice crop is projected at 138.0 million tons, down 2.0 million from a month ago; primarily due to the impact of prolonged drier-than-normal weather in the Yangtze River Valley affecting mostly early rice. Egypt’s crop is increased 0.9 million tons to 4.0 million due to a 33 percent increase in area—based on a recent report from the Agricultural Counselor in Cairo. The global import and export forecasts for 2011/12 are little changed from last month. Global consumption for 2011/12 is lowered 0.8 million tons, primarily due to lower consumption expected in China, but partially offset by increases for Egypt, EU-27, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected at 94.9 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month, due primarily to reductions for China and the United States which are partially offset by increases for Egypt, the Philippines, and Vietnam.


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