WASDE: Soybean Production Projections Down

July 12, 2011 02:43 AM
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 96.3 million tons, down 2.3 million tons from last month, with lower soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at 3.225 billion bushels, down 60 million due to reduced harvested area.
Harvested area, estimated at 74.3 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is 1.4 million below the June projection. The soybean yield is projected at 43.4 bushels per acre, unchanged from last month. Soybean supplies are 40 million bushels below last month’s forecast as higher beginning stocks partly offset lower production. Exports for 2011/12 are reduced 25 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting lower U.S. supplies, increased supplies in South America this fall, and reduced global imports. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 175 million bushels, down 15 million.
U.S. soybean exports for 2010/11 are projected at 1.52 billion bushels, down 20 million from last month in part reflecting lower projected imports for China. Soybean ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected at 200 million bushels, up 20 million.
The 2011/12 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at a record $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel, down $1.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at $345 to $375 per short ton, down $30 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 54 to 58 cents per pound, down 4 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 455.5 million tons, down 1.4 million from last month. Lower soybean, peanut, and rapeseed production estimates are only partly offset by increases for sunflowerseed. Global soybean production is projected at 261.5 million tons, down 1.3 million mostly due to lower production in the United States. Higher soybean production for Russia resulting from increased area partly offsets the U.S. reduction. Rapeseed production is reduced for Canada due to lower harvested area. Despite a record planted area estimate reported by Statistics Canada based on producer surveys conducted in late May and early June, much of the intended area in southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba did not get planted due to excessive moisture through late June. As a result, the Canada rapeseed crop is projected at 12.6 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month. Other changes include increased rapeseed production for Russia, increased sunflowerseed production for Russia and Ukraine, and reduced canola, cottonseed, and peanut production for the United States.
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