WASDE: Soybean Production Raised by 31 Million Bushels

January 10, 2014 05:05 AM
WASDE: Soybean Production Raised by 31 Million Bushels

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is estimated at 97.3 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Larger crops for soybeans, cottonseed, and peanuts are partly offset by reductions for sunflowerseed and canola. Soybean production is estimated at 3.289 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels based on increased yields and harvested area. The soybean yield is estimated at 43.3 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from the previous estimate. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.700 billion reflecting higher projected soybean meal exports, which partly offsets a reduction for Argentina. Soybean exports are increased 20 million bushels to 1.495 billion reflecting record shipments during the first quarter of the marketing year and strong sales through December. Soybean ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected at 150 million bushels, unchanged for last month. Soybean oil balance sheet changes include increased production on a higher crush and extraction rate, reduced imports, increased projected exports, and increased ending stocks.

The 2013/14 U.S. season-average farm price forecast for soybeans is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $11.75 to $13.25 per bushel based on prices reported to date. The soybean oil price is forecast at 35.5 to 39.5 cents per pound, down 2.5 cents on both ends. The soybean meal price is projected at $415 to $455 per short ton, up 15 dollars on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 505.9 million tons, up 3.6 million. Global soybean production is projected at 286.8 million tons, up 1.9 million on gains for the United States and Brazil. The Brazil soybean crop projection is raised 1.0 million tons to a record 89.0 million. The increase is due to higher projected area reflecting recent survey data from the Brazilian government. Global sunflowerseed production is raised 1.3 million tons to 43.7 million on record forecasts for Ukraine, Russia, and the European Union. The Ukraine crop is raised 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million on higher yields. Other changes include increased cottonseed production for China and Argentina, lower cottonseed production for Pakistan, and increased rapeseed production for Russia.

Global oilseed trade for 2013/14 is projected at 128.9 million tons, up slightly from last month. Increased soybean exports for the United States are partly offset by reduced rapeseed export prospects for Australia and Canada. Lower soybean meal exports for Argentina resulting from lower soybean crush are offset by gains for the United States, Brazil, and Russia. Increased global soybean oil trade mainly reflects a higher projection for the United States. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 85.1 million tons, up 2.3 million from last month on increased soybean stocks in Argentina and Brazil, increased canola stocks in Canada, and higher sunflowerseed stocks in Russia and Ukraine.





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