WASDE: Soybean Production to Increase 11%

11:05AM May 09, 2014
USDA soybeans in fall
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OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 107.9 million tons, up 11 percent from 2013/14. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase. Soybean production is projected at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop on record yields and harvested area. Yield is projected at a trend level of 45.2 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 2013. Supplies are projected at 3.78 billion bushels, up 7.4 percent from 2013/14 as a larger crop more than offsets lower beginning stocks and imports.

The U.S. soybean crush for 2014/15 is projected at 1.715 billion bushels, up 20 million from 2013/14 mainly reflecting increased domestic soybean meal consumption. Despite lower prices, soybean meal exports are projected up only slightly with Argentina soybean meal exports accounting for most of the gains in global soybean meal trade. U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million from 2013/14 on record supplies and competitive prices. Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from 2013/14, increasing the stocks-to-use ratio to 9.6 percent. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast to decline to $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel compared with $13.10 per bushel in 2013/14. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $355 to $395 per short ton, compared with $485 per ton for 2013/14. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 37 to 41 cents per pound compared with 40 cents for 2013/14.

Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 515.2 million tons, up 2.4 percent from 2013/14 with increased soybean and peanut production partly offset by lower rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed production. Mostly due to a larger U.S. crop, global soybean production is projected at 299.8 million tons, up 5.6 percent. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 91 million tons, up 3.5 million on small gains in area and yield. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54.0 million tons, unchanged from 2013/14 with lower area offset by higher yields. China soybean production is projected at 12 million tons, down 0.2 million as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops. Global production of high oil-content seeds (rapeseed and sunflowerseed) is projected down 4.0 percent from 2013/14 on reduced rapeseed production in Canada and Ukraine, and reduced sunflowerseed production in Russia, Ukraine, and the European Union. With crush projected to increase 2.4 percent, global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 94.8 million tons, up 14.6 million.

Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.2 percent in 2014/15. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3.5 percent in China which accounts for 30 percent of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 112.3 million tons, up 1.5 percent from 2013/14. China soybean imports are projected at 72 million tons, up 3 million from the 2013/14 projection. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 4.1 percent in 2014/15 led by increases for China, India, and Indonesia.





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