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WASDE: Soybean Production Up Based on Increased Yields

07:49AM Jan 12, 2012

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is estimated at 91.2 million tons, up 0.2 million tons from last month. Larger crops for soybeans and canola are partly offset by reductions for cottonseed, sunflowerseed, and peanuts. Soybean production is estimated at 3.056 billion bushels, up 10 million based on increased yields. The soybean yield is estimated at 41.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from the previous estimate. Soybean crush is lowered 10 million bushels to 1.615 billion reflecting industry-reported data through the first quarter of the marketing year. Soybean exports are projected at 1.275 billion bushels, down 25 million from last month and down 226 million from 2010/11. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 275 million bushels, up 45 million. Soybean product changes include a lower soybean oil extraction rate, lower projected soybean oil exports, and increased soybean oil ending stocks.

The 2011/12 U.S. season-average soybean price range is narrowed 25 cents on both ends of the range to $10.95 to $12.45 per bushel. The soybean oil price is forecast at 50.5 to 54.5 cents per pound, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $290 to $320 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range.

Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 457.4 million tons, down 0.3 million with lower soybean production more than offsetting higher projections for sunflowerseed and rapeseed. Global soybean production is projected at 257 million tons, down 2.2 million mostly due to lower production forecasts for South America. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 50.5 million tons, down 1.5 million due to lower projected area and yields. Excessive heat and dry conditions since December throughout much of the principal growing area is expected to limit soybean plantings and reduce yields from earlier expectations. The Brazil soybean crop is reduced 1 million tons to 74 million reflecting hot, dry conditions in recent weeks, especially in the second largest producing state of Parana where planting was more than half completed by late October. Favorable growing conditions in the main center-west region are expected to partly offset crop losses in the south. Global sunflowerseed production gains mostly reflect larger crops in Russia and Ukraine. Preliminary official harvest data from the State statistical agency indicate a higher yield for Russia, resulting in a record 9.6-million-ton crop. Ukraine sunflowerseed production is projected higher at a record 9.5 million tons based on increased harvested area. Other changes include increased rapeseed production for Australia and lower cottonseed production for India.

Global oilseed trade for 2011/12 is projected at 113.1 million tons, down 0.9 million mainly reflecting reduced soybean trade. Lower soybean exports for Argentina and the United States are only partly offset by an increase for Brazil. Imports are reduced for EU-27, Russia, Taiwan, Japan, and Turkey. Soybean imports for China are unchanged at 56.5 million tons. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 74.8 million tons, down 0.7 million from last month as reduced soybean stocks in Brazil and Argentina are only partly offset by higher U.S. soybean ending stocks.

Full WASDE report.

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