WASDE: Soybean Yield Projected at 43 Bu. per Acre

November 8, 2013 05:05 AM
WASDE: Soybean Yield Projected at 43 Bu. per Acre

Note: The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was not published in October 2013 due to the Federal Government shutdown.


OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at 96.4 million tons, up 3.3 million from the September estimate due to increased soybean, peanut, cottonseed, and canola production. Soybean production is forecast at 3.258 billion bushels, up 109 million as higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Harvested area is reduced 0.7 million acres to 75.7 million. The soybean yield is projected at 43.0 bushels per acre, up 1.8 bushels. Soybean supplies for 2013/14 are projected 4 percent above the September estimate on both increased production and beginning stocks.

U.S. soybean exports for 2013/14 are raised 80 million bushels to 1.45 billion reflecting increased supplies and the record pace of sales through late October. Soybean crush is raised 30 million bushels to 1.685 billion mostly due to increased soybean meal exports. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 170 million bushels, up 20 million from the September forecast.

The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2013/14 is projected at $11.15 to $13.15 per bushel, down $0.35 on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $375 to $415 per short ton, up $15 on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 40 to 44 cents per pound, down 3 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2013/14 is projected at a record 499.4 million tons, up 4.3 million from September. Higher soybean, sunflowerseed, and rapeseed forecasts account for most of the change. Global soybean production is projected at 283.5 million tons, up 1.9 million as the increase for the United States more than offsets reductions for India, Canada, Russia, and Ukraine. The India soybean crop is reduced 0.5 million tons to 11.8 million as excessive rainfall during much of the growing season reduced yield potential. Global sunflowerseed production is increased 1 million tons to a record 42.8 million on gains for Russia, European Union, and Moldova which are only partly offset by a reduction for Argentina. The increase for Russia reflects sharply higher yields reported in weekly harvest progress reports. Global rapeseed production is raised to a record 67.9 million tons reflecting gains for Canada, Ukraine, and the European Union. The increase for Canada is based on higher yields reported in the most recent survey from Statistics Canada. Almost ideal weather conditions throughout the growing season resulted in a projected record large crop despite the first decline in harvested area since 2006.

Revisions to the world 2013/14 oilseed supply and demand estimates include reduced soybean exports and increased crush for Argentina and increased soybean exports for Brazil. Soybean crush is reduced for India and Russia on smaller supplies. Rapeseed exports are increased for Canada and Ukraine, while imports are raised for China. Global oilseed stocks for 2013/14 are reduced 0.5 million tons to 80.7 million. Soybeans account for most of the change, with reduced stocks in Brazil more than offsetting gains in Argentina and the United States.




Coverage, Analysis of the Nov. 8 USDA Reports
See all of the report data, coverage and analysis of the Nov. 8 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports.

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