OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2010/11 are unchanged this month, leaving ending stocks at 140 million bushels. Although soybean export shipments are only modestly ahead of last year's pace, record sales through the first 5 months of the marketing year are expected to result in stronger gains in the second half of the marketing year.
Continued strong soybean meal export competition this spring, especially from Argentina, is expected to leave U.S. soybean crush well-below 2009/10 levels. Soybean oil exports are increased to 2.8 billion pounds reflecting continued strong export sales. Although soybean oil used for biodiesel during the first quarter of the marketing year was the lowest in 6 years, projected use for 2010/11 is unchanged from last month as biodiesel production is expected to accelerate due to the 2011 mandate and the return of the $1.00 per gallon blending credit.
The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2010/11 is projected at $11.20 to $12.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 51 to 55 cents per pound, up 3 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $340 to $380 per short ton, up 20 dollars on both ends of the range. Soybean product prices are raised this month based on strong year-to-date prices.
Global oilseed production for 2010/11 is projected at 441.8 million tons, up 1.4 million tons from last month. Foreign production, projected at 341.3 million tons, accounts for all of the
change. Brazil soybean production is forecast at a record 68.5 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month as timely rains in the southern producing area have raised yield prospects.
Paraguay soybean production is also projected higher this month. Argentina soybean production is projected at 49.5 million tons, down 1 million. Despite widespread rains since mid-January, the extended dry period during planting and early crop development reduced yield prospects. Other changes include higher soybean and sunflowerseed production for Ukraine, and increased peanut production for China. Palm production is raised for Indonesia and lowered for Malaysia.